MS: next move in interest rates is down

Advertisement

The crowd is on the RBAs side to follow the Federal Reserve and lift the record low overnight cash rate to more “normal” levels either in late 2018 or 2019.

There’s a problem with analysis and that is wage growth, inflation and indeed growth are still at abnormal lows with no upside signs on the horizon, particularly as housing substracts over the next two years.

The combined efforts of RBA and APRA to cool the housing market are very slowly taking effect, so the economy is not exactly firing on all hypercharged, tax advantaged, wholly politically supported cylinders either.

Advertisement

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:
Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe