Big Iron booms as China warns

Advertisement

Dalian is open and did not like the weekend Chinese credit data. Nor should it:

Big Iron doesn’t care:

And it may be able to pretend through Q1. After that, look out as China building slows.

Advertisement

Big Gold is rocking as the DXY falls. I’m definitely a seller here. The further the USD falls the more hawkish the Fed becomes:

Big Gas has also boomed on over Xmas as the bodies of Australian pensioners pile up. With oil at $70 and a shale boomlet in the offing I’m a seller here as well:

Advertisement

Big Sleazy is plodding sideways and has no chance to rally so long as bond yields rise:

Advertisement

But they ought to lift as yields fall back once the market figures out the RBA is trapped. Q1 might be a good time for a rotation from miners to banks for the landlocked super funds of yesteryear.

That said, Big Property has clearly rolled and is signalling all is not well for banks before too long:

Advertisement

The upshot is a still bullish XJO chart is quagmired in terrible under-performance versus the SP500:

I see no respite for this in 2018 as falling miners offset firmer banks. Such is life in a two trick pony bourse.

Advertisement
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.