Another week, another disastrous Newspoll for Do-Nothing Malcolm, with the Coalition still trailing Labor 53-47 on a two-party preferred basis, with cost-of-living concerns still front-and-centre. From The Australian:
Cost of living is set to become the critical political contest in 2018, with Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten locked in a neck-and-neck electoral battle over who is best able to deliver relief for middle-class families.
While the government has maintained its dominance as the better economic manager and is more trusted to deliver tax cuts, the Prime Minister has yet to convince voters that the Coalition is better placed than Labor to deliver on a promise to reduce the cost-of-living burden.
Having secured a critical victory in the Bennelong by-election, Mr Turnbull heads to the summer break with the Labor leader forced into partial retreat and the government’s parliamentary majority intact.
However, the final Newspoll of the year, conducted exclusively for The Australian, confirms that Mr Turnbull faces an uphill battle at a national level with the Coalition trailing Labor on an unchanged two-party-preferred vote of 53-47…
Labor has for the first time edged ahead of the government on which party is more capable of delivering on cost-of-living pressures…
The Coalition’s primary vote remained at a critically low 36 per cent, a six-point drop on the 2016 election result and still one point lower than Labor…
If Malcolm Turnbull had any political nous, he would alleviate voters’ cost of living concerns by halving Australia’s permanent migrant intake to a still incredibly generous 100,000 people per annum, and explain that moderating the migrant intake is necessary to alleviate critical infrastructure and housing pressures in Sydney and Melbourne, as well as to raise wages.
It would be an easy sell politically, wedging ‘open borders’ Labor on this issue and wrestling the ascendancy back from its negative gearing and capital gains tax policies. It would also wedge The Greens on the environment.
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Pursuing this policy would also have the added benefit of nullifying One Nation, whose commitment to reducing immigration is its only genuine voter drawcard.
Unfortunately, common sense is not too common with Do-Nothing Malcolm, and he’ll likely continue to dither until the Coalition shows him the door.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
