Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Asian share markets are mixed with Chinese stocks selling off while Japanese markets are supported by a weaker Yen as the USD surges against everything, except Bitcoin that is.

In mainland China the Shanghai Composite continues its plunge below key support at 3300 points, down 0.6% to be at 3274 points going into the close. The next support zone at the 3200 level could be snapped up quite fast. The Hang Seng Index is doing the reverse, bouncing up 0.6% after its big fall yesterday to recover slightly less than half at 28397 points. We could see a little consolidation here with the 28000 point firming as support if the intrasession lows are to be believed:

S&P futures are slowly recovering here after last nights scratch session, creeping above the previous ATR trailing support level at 2630 as the BTFD crowd re-enters the fray:

Japanese stocks have come back and then some as Yen sold off against the USD, the Nikkei closed nearly 1.5% higher to 22487 points, in what looks to be a quick recovery from a bearish pattern on the daily chart. Maybe a bit too quick because the four hourly chart of the USDJPY pair still looks ominous medium term, even with this small revovering off the 112 handle. Momentum is waning here going into the City open, so I’m sceptical that this has legs back up to the former high at the start of the week:

The ASX200 was more positive than I expected, bouncing straight away at the open to close 0.5% higher to 5977 points. There was almost no reaction to the poor trade figures as the banks led this rally, with most divisions of Megabank up 1 to 1.5%

The hits keep coming for the beleagured Aussie dollar with a flailing session as the poor trade figures weighed on the Pacific Peso. This fall takes it to a new two week low, surpassing last weeks intrasession lows but not the November low at 75.40 level. Thats the one to watch as it means a full retracement back to 73.50 or lower:

The data calendar is building up to tomorrow nights NFP print with German industrial production numbers, followed by US initial jobless claims. Watch out for a conference in the early hours which will including Mario Draghi that could be EURUSD sensitive.


    • As it should. We are hugely in debt, our government owes half a T, our punters owe 1.5T, our wages are stagnant, household bills keep going up, the population ponzi is killing job security, our standard of living is falling, our banks and politicians are corrupt, china seems to be the major sponsor of our political system, as well as owning half the country, yet some fools keep buying the Aussie? Markets can stay irrational etc..

      Edit: Oh, and our miners can topple governments and the public thinks it’s a good idea. Our government wants to support a huge white elephant coal mine by a corrupt indian, our politicians bring coal into parliament when we should have the highest amount of renewables in the world, and Gerry Harvey can change taxation policy to suit himself whilst Trigobuff seems to have the immigration quota set to his desires. F*ck me dead, this country is done, stick a fork in it.

  1. One beauty of Crypto is that data releases & CB spivs can’t instantly whiplash & shake players out….. Also all 3 timezones seem to be on the same page……. More like recently discovered penny shares.

    Shame I can’t get the small Alts into an MT4.

    • Eeh…

      Blockchain has transnational and other applications, tho when transported to the monetary plain suffer the same dramas its predecessors did, not to mention that law always preceded events….

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        There was an announcement about something I can’t remember about a week ago. I’d go looking but the internet tonight has already taken me from tigers and flies to Drop The Dead Donkey to Jeff Daniels guitar collection. Must stop.

      • I’d rather say I “might” have been a millionaire having a go at bitcoin, than knowing I just lost my entire life savings. I’ll leave it to all the cool kids that tell everyone they don’t know what they are talking about if you speak ill of the new mesiah. Us oldies are just to dumb to “get it”

      • You gotta wonder where this money is coming from. What’s even more weird is that I don’t trust the exchanges one bit and there have been quite a few serious glitches recently with coinbase, bittrex etc and no one cares?

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Got a stash of Queen Victoria, Edward V11 and George V gold sovereigns stashed in a box under Martin Place . Such quaint antiquities but I love the thrill of taking them out and feeling them occasionally ( yes I like to do that ) …….Bitcoin sure makes them feel worthless but I think I’ll hang on to them just in case the power goes off .(I think the vault door is manual)

      • We have officially entered the parabolic blowoff FOMO stage. Every generation needs to learn the same lesson.

      • Im not even sure it’s blowoff. I reckon there’s more to it, like someone is priming it up to get as many in as possible before an exchange or something wipes out the entire thing. The other cryptos haven’t really budged in the meantime and instead ETH for example has fallen. Something aint right

    • Exponential shape like every mania since tulips and South Sea bubble. Read Devil take the Hindmost. Youll see a few things like bitcoin over the years.