Australian dollar headed for short term pain trade?

Advertisement

The ASX is still as excited as a dead possum today:

The Australian dollar is more interesting, threatening a counter-trend rally with support around 76 cents holding and a double bottom in place:

Advertisement

The odds are pretty reasonable for a short term bounce. The USD now has to chop through the reality of tax reform problems beyond the exciting idea of them. As well, the iron ore and coking coal rallies could do anything from here, in my view, given the steel shortage driving both is going to get worse for another full quarter, Regardless of the underlying gluts for the bulks, Banana Man will be free to bid them skywards. Add La Nina and weather disruptions to supply in Q1 and boom!

If it happens it is a prize opportunity to get offshore given it is right into the teeth of a slowing China.

To wit, Dalian is stable at the open:

Advertisement

Big Iron is conspicuously ignoring the rally:

Killing pensioners runs on:

Big Gold is back but if the AUD rallies up then expect a correction:

Advertisement

Big Sleazy is still taking the RC hard:

And Big Scrotum is off hard as market darlings follow the NASDAQ lower. Domain has a nice downtrend:

Advertisement

Any AUD pain trade will not help the ASX!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.