Macro Afternoon

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by Chris Becker

Risk is back in Asia, although you wouldn’t think it using the Aussie dollar as a risk proxy, as it heads to a new five month low. All stock markets lifted in line with the reversal in mood overnight, although Chinese stocks seem to be getting ahead of themselves as worries over mega debts abate into apathy.

In mainland China the Shanghai Composite zoomed up higher, breaking above 3400 points again to be up 0.5% to 3410 as sentiment reverses. The Hang Seng Index is doing even better, up nearly 1.5% to be at 29,707 points, in what looks like a blowoff move on the daily chart – but is 30,000 next?

S&P futures are up slightly, but still unable to break a new three day high:

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Japanese stocks responded as expected to the move lower by Yen overnight, with the Nikkei closing up 0.9% to be at 22460 points, respecting daily support at the 22000 point zone and continuing a firm consolidation here after its blowoff phase. The USDJPY pair is slowly melting higher, but not materially making any gains on last night’s move and remains here just above the high moving average, but below ATR resistance on the four hourly chart, its daily downtrend still intact:

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The ASX200 did nothing really until the last hour of the session, closing up 0.3% to 5963 points. This was not led by the banks, rather mining and support stocks blipped higher towards the close following Chinese stocks with BHP up 0.4% for the day.

The Australian dollar is again on the ropes fending off the bears without much success as it makes new session and daily lows, heading below 75.40 against USD. There’s nothing to support it from here down to 73 cents or thereabouts in my view, but I’m waiting for the inevitable swingback:

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The data calendar is again fairly sparse tonight with a couple speeches the only real risk events, if you can call them that!