Chief Scientist Alan Finkel has contradicted the government’s claims that Labor’s 50 per cent renewables target by 2030 is irresponsible, issuing a major report that says it could be met easily without jeopardising reliability and without the need for significant investment in energy storage.
The study into Australia’s future energy storage needs commissioned by Dr Finkel, says batteries in households with rooftop solar power would be enough to underwrite Australia’s entire energy reliability requirement by 2030.
“Nationally and regionally, the electricity system can reach penetrations of renewable energy close to 50 per cent without significant requirements for energy reliability storage,” the report says.
Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has described Labor’s commitment to lift renewable’s share of generating capacity to 50 per cent by 2030 as “crazy” and claimed it would cost at least $50 billion.
The full blurb:
Bright future for Australian energy storage despite public uncertainty
A report released today by the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) says that Australia has the potential to lead the world in developing large and home scale energy storage systems if public uncertainty can be overcome.
It also warns that without proper planning and investment in energy storage, electricity costs in Australia will continue to rise and electricity supply will become less reliable.
The report finds the public had some awareness of energy storage such as batteries and pumped hydro but had very limited knowledge of other emerging technologies such as renewable hydrogen.
It also notes reluctance from consumers to install batteries at home for perceived safety reasons. However, the report identifies that Australians are fast adopters given the right market conditions, and there are 1.8 million homes with rooftop solar power systems that could use battery packs for energy storage.
“This report clearly shows the two sides of the coin – that energy storage is an enormous opportunity for Australia but there is work to be done to build consumer confidence,” said the chair of the ACOLA expert working group, Dr Bruce Godfrey.
“The best way to change attitudes is to increase understanding about energy storage.”
“Given our natural resources and our technical expertise, energy storage could represent a major new export industry for our nation,” said Australia’s Chief Scientist, Dr Alan Finkel.
“Energy storage is an opportunity to capitalise on our research strengths, culture of innovation and abundant natural resources. We have great advantages in the rapidly expanding field of lithium production and the emerging field of renewable hydrogen with export opportunities to Asia.”
“This is the first in a series of ‘horizon scanning’ reports. By working closely with the Office of the Chief Scientist ACOLA aims to present evidence-based reports on key issues to the Prime Minister’s Commonwealth Science Council to inform policy making and identify opportunities,” said ACOLA President, Professor John Fitzgerald.
The report explains that energy storage solutions can improve Australia’s energy system in two major ways. First, by providing greater security by stabilising frequencies that fluctuate within seconds especially with renewable energy sources such as wind and solar farms. Second, by improving reliability by providing additional back-up power when needed in times of high demand such as heatwaves.
The forward-looking report has 10 key findings and contains detailed modelling and a national survey of more than energy 1,000 energy consumers.
Among the findings is that recycling of lithium ion batteries is an opportunity for Australia, where we already have a history of recycling more than 90 per cent of lead-acid batteries.
A new report into energy storage commissioned by chief scientist Alan Finkel highlights the enormous opportunities for storage in Australia, but underlines how little is actually needed over the short to medium term, even at relatively high levels of wind and solar.
The report, The role of Energy Storage in Australia’s Future Energy Supply Mix, funded by Finkel’s office and the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA), says the required investment in energy security and reliability over the next 5-10 years will be minimal (see graph above), even if wind and solar deployment moves far beyond levels contemplated by the Energy Security Board.
The contrast with the ESB modelling – and the attempts by Coalition parties at state and federal level to dismiss high levels of renewable energy as “reckless’ – could not be more pronounced.
While the ESB, in arguing for a National Energy Guarantee, speaks of the system threats and urgency to act with a level of “variable” renewables accounting for between 18 and 24 per cent of total generation, this new report says surprising little storage may be needed with 35 per cent to 50 per cent wind and solar.
Even in the 50 per cent variable renewable energy scenario – more than double that contemplated at the high end by the ESB – the new report suggests enough battery storage may be available “behind the meter” – households and businesses – to meet the storage needs.
“The modelling provides reassurance that both reliability and security requirements may be met with readily available technologies,” it says.
“Nationally and regionally, the electricity system can reach penetrations of renewable energy close to 50 per cent without significant requirements for energy reliability storage.
“Reliability problems, such as those that recently occurred in South Australia and New South Wales, can be responded to quickly and effectively with appropriate storage.”
In one of the most detailed reports into energy storage, the authors point to the huge potential of battery and energy storage in Australia – both in core mineral resources, manufacturing of battery storage, R&D, deployment, and even renewable hydrogen.
At the same time, the report also warns that Australia needs to develop a recycling strategy for battery storage, and also needs to take into account other social aspects, such as the origins of lithium and cobalt.
But the most striking part of the report is the apparent contrast to the “doomsday” scenarios about renewable energy peddaled by the Coalition, and the fossil fuel industry, and reflected in some of the assumption in the proposed National Energy Guarantee.
Yes, the report says, sensible policies are needed to provide a market signal, and the opportunities are boundless. But it does not suggest that wind and solar farms should be penalised for not having storage, or should be made to appear or act like coal fired power stations.
Indeed, it says the total storage requirement for Australia to meet even a 50 per cent share of variable renewable energy – wind and solar – would be a fraction of the annual spend required of the grid.
This graph illustrates the cost of meeting security and reliability needs for 50 per cent wind and solar – just $10.7 billion if batteries alone. And most of these could be installed behind the meter.
“These numbers are not so huge that we have to go gasp, at least compared to what we are spending anyway on networks,” lead author Professor Bruce Godfrey said.
In fact, spending on storage could actually defray the required spending on poles and wires – possibilities that are beginning to emerge with the creation of micro-grids, and support for new solar investments to help ageing grids cope with rising peak demand.
Pointedly, the study models levels of “variable”renewable energy – wind and solar” that are far higher than that contemplated by the ESB in its argument for an “urgent” reliability option.
The new study’s “low renewable” share – 35 per cent – is twice the amount of wind and solar modeled by the ESB for 2030 – at just 18-24 per cent – and yet it sees little need for a lot of added storage.
The study’s medium renewables scenario aims at 50 per cent share of variable renewbles by 2030, while its “high” share models 75 per cent wind and solar penetration.
It even contemplates what is needed for a 100 per cent renewable energy in South Australia – a scenario that looks an increasing possibility given the huge range of projects in the pipeline, many with storage of some sort, including pumped hydro, solar thermal, and batteries.
The underlying principal is that for up to 50 per cent renewable share, not that much storage is needed- although this increases rapidly as the share of variable renewables goes beyond that evel.
“At an aggregated national level5, Australia can reach penetrations of 50 per cent renewable energy without a significant requirement for storage to support energy reliability,” it says.
In this sense it fits in with the scenarios painted by the CSIRO and Energy Networks Australia in their energy transformation roadmap last year, but the contrast with the assumptions made by the ESB is stark.
As we’ve said many times, once the renewable/battery cost drops below coal it’s game over. We reckon it’ll be within five years. Households probably about the same time. I’m about to go off-grid, thanks very much!
I’ll be #%^&* if I’m paying that government-sponsored gas cartel a brass razoo.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
