Could Julie Bishop pull a Jacinda Ardern?

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Why not? Turnbull is an outright fool, from Laura Tingle:

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says the”witch hunt” and “lynch mob” mentality over the citizenship of federal parliamentarians has to stop, insisting a citizenship audit is not appropriate, and that the High Court is the only body able to determine citizenship.

A clearly angry Prime Minister said that the “witch hunt” over citizenship “has become so absurd” that people were now claiming that Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg might be a Hungarian citizen through his mother when, in fact, his mother had been stripped of her citizenship by the Hungarian fascist government in place during the Second World War because she was Jewish.

He rejected a push for an audit of existing parliamentarians’ citizenship and challenged people who wanted to make allegations about individual members and senators to have a motion on the matter moved in the Parliament to have them tested in the court.

Only one man can end and that is Turnbull, with an audit.

Instead, it’s all falling apart around his usual dithering, from Phil Coorey:

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Just as the Abbott-aligned Kevin Andrews, Eric Abetz and Craig Kelly continue to demand an audit when the Prime Minister, Acting Prime Minster and Treasurer have ruled one out. No-one cares what anyone says or how untidy it all appears externally. It’s all about score settling.

It’s not just citizenship. In a week or so, the national debate will be consumed by same-sex marriage, not so much the result of the postal plebiscite whichs expected to return a Yes vote.

Strap in for the feud between the conservatives and the moderates over the extent of the religious and other protections that need to be incorporated into the subsequent private members bill that is supposed to pass by Christmas.

Every issue is fair game for a fight whether it’s a Liberal-National split or one fought along the Turnbull-Abbott divide.

Labor can hardly get a word in.

More:

Labor has demanded Malcolm Turnbull refer two Liberal MPs with Greek heritage to the High Court if he does not agree to a system of disclosure for all parliamentarians.

But as cabinet ministers rallied behind the Prime Minister’s plea to end the “witch-hunt” into MPs’ citizenship status, prominent backbencher Eric Abetz sought to turn up the heat on Labor by challenging two opposition MPs to show their renunciation documents.

The government is also facing a messy internal fight over the Senate presidency after Stephen Parry was felled over his dual citizenship, with Special Minister of State Scott Ryan’s name now in the mix and talk the Nationals could strike a deal with Labor to snatch the plum post.

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And:

Late on Sunday Penny Wong called for Hawke and Victorian Liberal Julia Banks, who was earlier pursued over questions of Greek citizenship by descent – which she denies – to be referred to the high court.

“Australians can no longer believe [Malcolm] Turnbull or his MPs when they say ‘trust us’,” Wong said in a statement. “How many other MPs and senators in similar situations to Stephen Parry are they covering up?

“This is becoming a test of leadership for Malcolm Turnbull.

“Will he listen to Australians who just want this soap opera to end? Or is he so out of touch that he will continue to ignore this crisis?”

And:

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The Liberal and Labor parties have undertaken sweeping behind the scenes audits of all their MPs to ensure they are not dual citizens and ineligible for parliament, despite both parties fighting an external probe for months.

And in a move designed to bring the citizenship crisis to a head, the Greens will immediately move when the Senate next sits to establish a committee that can compel all senators to produce evidence they have complied with section 44 of the Constitution.

While defending Josh Frydenberg over dual citizenship claims, a fired up Malcolm Turnbull says his mother was rendered stateless by Germans and fascists who treated Jews as subhuman and it’s a miracle she wasn’t killed in the Holocaust.

The Greens move shapes as a test for Labor, which on Friday flipped its position and announced that it would support an undefined bipartisan process to uncover any additional dual citizens.

The Greens proposal will likely have the support of the Senate cross bench but will need Labor backing to proceed.

Domainfax is mulling Julie Bishop:

Turnbull’s position is becoming untenable. Compounding the threat to his position is the complexion of his poll numbers. The government is not merely trailing Labor, its primary vote is flatlining at or below 35 per cent. Disillusionment with Turnbull is deep and widespread. It is especially fierce among more traditional Coalition voters. And the tone-deaf political performance of the government over the past fortnight has likely conferred an intractable quality on that judgment.

While there is little appetite for change in Liberal ranks the reality that it is ebbing out of office will almost certainly force its hand. While some consider Julie Bishop could ameliorate the extent of an inevitable defeat, she is capable of winning an election in her own right.

Although she has steadfastly ruled out a challenge, her decision not to campaign for marriage equality suggests she understands the growing fury on the right of her party and has retained her freedom of manoeuvre as a consensus candidate who understands the conservative base.

Nor has resentment at her assumption of the role of Acting Prime Minister among some in the National Party ruled her out. The Nationals have been able to serve in a Coalition led by Turnbull after his mismanagement of the nuances of energy and climate policy in 2009. They will have no problem working with Bishop.

She commands respect among leaders of the mining industry in her home state of Western Australia and is an effective fundraiser. To a party in straitened financial circumstances this is an important aspect of leadership. Bishop is popular in boardrooms, among the Liberal constituency and with the party, where she is in demand among marginal seat holders.

While some will argue her record in the shadow treasurer role exposes her as lacking policy credentials, this is more than offset by her strong performance across the spectrum of national security and foreign policy. With global terrorism and the deteriorating security situation among nuclear states in north Asia a major source of concern among voters, the times may well suit Bishop.

She sits in the national security subcommittee of the cabinet and has run Australia’s external intelligence agency with aplomb. While she has her detractors inside the government, Labor strategists have a healthy regard for her electoral appeal. She is the only Liberal who makes them nervous and may induce voters to take another look at this government and to scrutinise Bill Shorten one last time before electing him.

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The only way Julie Bishop can turn the ship around is to also change policy. If she were to embrace the Jacinda Ardern platform of cutting immigration by 30%, banning foreign speculators to address housing affordability, city congestion and falling wages then she would really shake things up:

  • One Nation would be smashed;
  • Labor’s negative gearing reforms would be neutralised;
  • the Coalition would be wages champion not Labor;
  • Loon ponders could be drawn in to support the agenda;
  • the Coalition could argue, rightly, that it is more green than either Labor or The Greens with lower population growth reducing the emissions path and habitat destruction, and
  • issues like gay marriage would simply fall away as the Government’s new agenda dominated the national narrative.

Having a woman cut immigration also softens the potential backlash from Australia’s wowserish media.

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I doubt she would win, given how sick the Coalition has become. But, that Labor is not ahead by 14 points today is indicative that Bill Shorten is vulnerable if the Government can half get it’s act together.

Bishop is too much party machine to recreate Jacindamania but she could certainly throw the cards in the air with an echo of her policies.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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