Australia goes ex-Malcolm

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You’re gone mate. Get out of the way. At the AFR not even tax cuts can save you. From Jennifer Hewitt:

Bill English must have been a little perplexed as he listened to Malcolm Turnbull address the Business Council of Australia annual dinner.

The Prime Minister made it all sound so straightforward as he talked of the importance of lower taxes for businesses and for middle Australia and his government’s record of policy achievements.

As Labor unkindly pointed out, “thought bubbles” on the economic benefits of lower taxes don’t add up to anything like a detailed plan or a budget.

And Phil Baker:

Income tax cuts for a fair chunk of the nation’s workers might sound like a great idea, but how would the money be really used these days and can we afford them right now?

There’s always a focus on the spending power and what it can do for the economy whenever tax cuts get flagged, but with household debt so high, and consumers dipping into their savings to pay for their electricity bills, there’s a risk they might choose to pay down their debt with any extra cash they might get.

It’s been a tough time for consumers, with wage growth so low for so long, and it’s why more households are giving up smoking and hanging on to their cars for longer.

They are even cutting back on their betting.

The latest earnings report from British betting giant William Hill shows that revenue in Australia has fallen 2 per cent, while wagers have dropped 5 per cent.

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And Jacob Greber:

Don’t hold your breath battlers. The prospect of meaningful income tax relief is a chimera.

For one, seriously unwinding bracket creep – or the process by which workers winning pay increases slide into higher tax brackets – would see Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull jettison his budget surplus strategy, which was one of the main reasons for deposing Tony Abbott.

Delivering low- and middle-income tax cuts, as outlined vaguely and with scant detail by Mr Turnbull on Monday, may well be a longer-term goal.

But doing so any time soon means the Coalition would be at risk of making exactly the same mistakes as the previous Labor government – effectively spending budget dollars before they exist in reality.

And tax-cut junkie Sinclair Davidson:

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Now the government has a much harder task – it must make the case for tax cuts from a position of budget weakness. The Coalition has already failed to convince Parliament to fully implement company tax cuts – now it must convince the electorate and Parliament about the need for more tax cuts.

Right now every dollar of tax cut will be financed by a dollar of borrowing. In essence, tax relief now to be financed by somewhat higher taxes in future. That is not necessarily a bad thing. We can imagine arguments being made about smoothing income over time. Alternatively we might imagine that increased private spending now will boost economic activity and reduce the relative tax burden in future.

The point being, however, that these arguments have to be made and are yet to be made.

At The Australian, even serial Malcolm arse-kisser Paul Kelly is skeptical:

Advancing personal income tax cuts at the next election is a no-brainer. Ministers have canvassed this informally for months.

There are two imperatives. Turnbull must confront the embarrassment of his government’s fiscal repair strategy, namely the main adjustment coming from higher income tax; and, second, he must offer a more appealing tax policy at the next election to avoid any repeat of last year’s blunder.

In short, it’s about hope and confidence. Next month’s midyear fiscal review is expected to reveal strong revenues, setting the scene for a policy shift next year. Optimists suggest the door is opening for income tax cuts.

This discussion, of course, assumes the survival of the Turnbull government come next April-May after the by-elections triggered by the citizenship crisis. The government’s vulnerability is stark: witness its decision to cancel next week’s sitting of the house and Bill Shorten’s easy exploitation of the issue.

In a speech on Monday, Turnbull expressed a tax relief sentiment but gave no details. He is desperate to begin setting the agenda again. The logic is such tax cuts must be geared to lower and middle-income earners who are being punished, and that it must not sabotage the necessity for budget repair — a daunting task.

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And Janet Albrechtsen:

Having imprudently cancelled parliament for a week, the Turnbull government could use its spare time to reacquaint itself with the liberal mindset. The one that believes in more — not less — liberty, greater individual responsibility and the corrupting power of big government. And the one that understands the three vices of government: taxing us too much, spending too much of our money poorly and, worst of all, presuming to tell us how we can spend the bit we’re left with after we’ve paid our taxes.

And Richo is characteristically blunt:

If there was a sliver of respectability left with the Prime Minister and his government, it was well and truly smashed and trashed on Monday. The announcement that the first week of parliamentary sitting would be cancelled demonstrated why there is a pall of crisis clouding the government and why Malcolm Turnbull has been on the wrong end of 23 Newspolls in a row. There are senior Ministers who had argued some weeks ago to cancel that week of Parliament when there was only one vote (Barnaby Joyce) down. Unsurprisingly, they were furious that the PM once again failed to be decisive. He dithered for so long that by the time he made the decision public, John Alexander had fallen on his sword over his dual citizenship.

A decision that would have been viewed at best with scepticism, now looked like one born of fear.

These days our PM is a bundle of fears. He fears the sitting of the Australian Parliament because it may well deliver a Royal Commission into the banks and he continues to ride shotgun for his mates in the big four. He fears Bill Shorten who seems to have his measure.

…Someone in the Liberal Party room has to put an end to this misery. Someone with integrity and guts must rise to his or her feet and call the PM for what he is: an isolated, aloof figure, distrusted by his own, and detested by too many.

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The rest of the reporting is equally derisory as all and sundry condemn the the cancellation of parliament, citizenship dodging, SSM delays and energy policies.

It’s over. All the idiot will do now is poison the well for his successor.

He needs the chop ASAP.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.