NZ population to surge on Asian immigration

Advertisement

By Leith van Onselen

Statistics NZ has released projections showing that New Zealand’s population will rise by 0.8 to 1.9 million people in the 25 years from 2013 (+18% to +43%) on the back of strong immigration from Asian nations, with Auckland to bear much of the population increase:

The broad Asian ethnic group will increase the most over the period. This group’s population is projected to rise from 540,000 in 2013 to 1.2–1.4 million in 2038. The Pacific ethnic group is also projected to rise significantly, from 340,000 in 2013 to 530,000–650,000 in 2038.

The Māori population is projected to surpass 1 million by 2038, with growth in all regions.

New Zealand’s total population is projected to grow from 4.4 million in 2013 to 5.2–6.3 million in 2038. Auckland region’s population is projected to exceed 2 million in the early 2030s, up from 1.5 million in 2013…

“The Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations are growing faster because of their younger age structures – combined with higher birth rates or migration.”

The broad Asian ethnic group’s share is projected to be higher than the Māori ethnic share by 2023, and is projected to be 22 percent of the total population by 2038. The Māori ethnic share is projected to rise to 18 percent by 2038.

Despite the ‘European or Other’ ethnic group’s population rising from 3.3 million in 2013 to 3.6–4.0 million in 2038, the ethnic share of this group is projected to fall from 75 percent of New Zealand’s population in 2013 to 66 percent in 2038.

In an earlier report, Statistics New Zealand did a good job showing why mass immigration is a useless policy tool in stopping population ageing. As shown in the chart below, the large influx of Asian population aged between 15 and 35 years old in 2013 will become an ageing population by 2038:

Advertisement

Immigrants, too, grow old. And immigration, therefore, can only delay the ageing process, not prevent it. And it comes with burden of having a bigger (and older) population in the future, thus requiring an even larger immigration intake to to once again offset population ageing (dog meet tail).

[email protected]

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.