Via the AFR:
While the federal government has threatened to use the GST formula to punish states that ban coal-seam gas, the body that administers the GST has already concluded the threat is not very scary.
The Commonwealth Grants Commission considered the idea of using the GST to punish states for blocking coal seam gas mining and concluded in a discussion paper in August that it will only cost NSW or Victoria about $1 per capita per year while boosting Queensland revenue by $5 per capita.
That is “immaterial” in its impact on the distribution of the $62 billion GST revenue a year. For example it would cut $8 million from NSW GST take of $17 billion.
“Commission staff propose to recommend to the Commission that it not change its treatment of mineral bans as it is not material to do so,” the discussion paper said.
Just do nothing.