With neither major party gaining enough votes in Saturday’s election to form government, New Zealand First’s (NZF) Winston Peters, who holds the balance of power, continues to keep the electorate and media guessing over which side he’ll back to form a minority government.
As reported in Interest.co.nz yesterday, Peters outlined that there are nine possible outcomes and that NZF would wait until 7 October when all special votes are in before making his decision:
Interest.co.nz understands that included in the nine are situations where policies are supported (or not) on an issue-by-issue basis – effectively giving rise to the potential of minority National and/or Labour governments…
The New Zealand First leader spent 25 minutes on Wednesday fronting to the political press in Parliament, sometimes discussing New Zealand First’s approach to the next few weeks, but largely ripping into the media on pre- and post-election coverage and on the lines of questioning during the press conference on potential coalitions.
Peters and his caucus had just emerged from a two-and-a-half-hour meeting – the team’s first get together since Saturday’s election. After initially laying into the media with his initial remarks, Peters raised the issue of the special votes – why 384,000 people still had not had their votes counted, meaning NZ First had to withhold its views on government formation until after they were known on 7 October…
He also asked the media not to write that one party [ie National] had “got the moral authority” to lead a government. “We’re not under first-past-the-post here,” he said. Peters said he would seek feedback from NZ First’s membership, but caveated this by saying he would expect the party board would already have a fair understanding of members’ views. New Zealand First’s final position is expected to be a result of the views of its caucus and board.
Meanwhile, Interest.co.nz’s Alex Tarrant has examined how NZF’s policies match with Labour’s and National’s to try and predict which way NZF might lean. Tarrant believes that Labour’s policies are a better fit, but that NZF might side with National purely for the “headline potential”:
By way of manifesto comparison, NZ First fits much better with Labour, and can be involved in many more policy changes even with the Greens around the table as well. But the influence of New Zealand’s short political cycles might mean they favour an approach which would see National allowing them fewer headline-grabbing policies, but at least the space of being the only party in the headline seen driving change. This could also be an argument for them to sit on the cross benches, supporting National or Labour budgets if a few NZF policies were allowed each time à la Gareth Morgan’s plans…
Immigration…
The initial reaction is that Labour is closer to New Zealand First on immigration policy, than National is. That’s based on Labour’s policy to reduce the number of foreign students attending private training organisations. The policy argues that the students use the courses for access to NZ, then take on low-paying jobs, predominantly in Auckland. Labour estimates its policy would see a 20,00-30,000 reduction in student migrants and their partners…
Skills…
Migration policy is linked to skills policy in that the general argument is, ‘we wouldn’t need those migrants if we taught our own youth the skills required’… there is less agreement between NZ First and National than with Labour…
Meanwhile, paid internships, or ‘dole-for apprentices’ schemes are favoured by NZ First and Labour…
Tertiary education…
Staying with Tracey Martin – who at number three on the NZF list might be expecting some sort of Ministerial position – tertiary education is an interesting area where NZF appears closer to Labour than to National. Jacinda Ardern noted this week that Labour and NZF’s end points appeared similar in terms of free tertiary education to an extent, although their paths for getting there were different. This all comes against the back-drop of National tightening up on student loan repayments, and cutting post-grad study funding in recent years…
Climate Change…
This could be an area where Labour needs NZ First and the Greens around the table together at some point. Again, it’s one where the end goal appears the same but the means for getting there differ…
When it comes to a Labour-led government, NZF will likely fight tooth and nail to stop the Greens from enforcing their prescription to mitigate climate change, even if just a matter of political principle…
Home ownership schemes…
Given the debate around housing affordability and first home buyers in recent years, home ownership schemes could be a big part of any coalition negotiations. National has already taken moves to try and help first home buyers, with extension of its deposit subsidy scheme, Homestart.
Labour isn’t a fan of subsidies, opting to argue that it will build 100,000 houses and sell them at cost, and not allow buyers to bank any capital gains within five years. New Zealand First’s policy is more a return to schemes that existed when Peters first entered Parliament. Allowing first home buyers access to low interest loans through Housing New Zealand (rates would rise as earnings and equity increased) would be a big change to the status quo…
Freight and Rail…
A favourite of Winston Peters and his caucus. Also for Labour, it seems. And something they can both agree on with the Greens. For National, its focus on roads this campaign could mean it can be ‘brought around’ on accepting that government could look to reinstate certain regional rail lines – particularly in Northland and the East Cape – or at least agree to scoping studies as costs might be an issue.
Labour and New Zealand First are so close in terms of rail that there runs the risk that Peters won’t be seen as having ‘forced’ anything in negotiations – meaning not so much attention over New Zealand First’s persuasive abilities when it comes to 2020.
Not a bad summation there. NZF aligns much better on policy with Labour but might choose to side with National in order to be seen to be driving change.
Interesting times ahead watching how the electoral chips fall.
