NZ Election on a knife edge

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By Leith van Onselen

The 23 September New Zealand General Election looks set to go down to the wire.

A few weeks back, the Colmar Brunton Poll showed that Labour had overtaken the National Government for the first time in a decade, running on a platform of fundamental housing reform and lower immigration:

However, this week’s Newshub poll showed that support had flowed back to National, suggesting it could govern outright:

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With the Greens polling too low to enter Parliament at all, Labour would be unable to form a coalition government.

In a 121-seat Parliament, National would have 61 seats – a majority. It could form a buffering coalition agreement with ACT, who would bring one seat and/or the Māori Party, who would bring two…

When questioned by Newshub, National leader Bill English stuck with his current metaphor of choice – a drag race – saying despite the poll, he believed Labour and National were “level pegging”.

“Those numbers are a bit higher than what we’re seeing…. What we see is a drag race between the two big parties,” he said.

Yesterday, the latest Colmar Brunton Poll again showed that Labour has maintained its four point lead over National:

Jacinda Ardern’s fear that the party was hemorrhaging votes from National’s attack appears unfounded, with Labour actually jumping one point higher to 44 per cent.

National also climbed one point from last week’s poll to 40 per cent.

Alongside Labour, the big winner from this poll is the Greens, up two points to seven per cent. On tonight’s numbers, Labour and the Greens could govern alone.

Would-be king or queen maker Winston Peters (New Zealand First) is down three points in tonight’s poll to six per cent, while TOP is steady at two per cent and the Maori Party is down one point to one percent…

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New Zealand’s election is shaping up as a very tight race. I am still tipping that Labour will get over the line on the back of disquiet over National’s housing failures.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.