It is probably too early to read much into the drop in confidence this month. While external shocks, such as the escalating tensions with North Korea, may have had some impact, we have actually asked for the first time in the Survey what firms see as being the most influential factors impacting confidence. For those indicating deterioration in confidence, the biggest concerns appear to be customer demand, government policy, as well as cost pressures – both energy and wages
Pretty mixed bag. That’s a huge jump in employment intentions, though, and labour costs. Offset by a big fall in confidence.
We know that the survey under-represents mining so some of this strength is overestimated. Still, if we get jobs growth like that then there will be wages pressures.
There remains a big question about how durable it is given the Botox Boom hand-over from dwelling construction to infrastructure is overlapping for a time.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
