Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Asia remains nervous amid heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula with safe havens once more the destination for risk. Gold and Yen firmed while most stock markets retreated and other undollar currencies were stable. The RBA held fire at its interest rate meeting today in a session thin on the ground with economic releases.

In mainland China the Shanghai Composite is putting in a scratch session to be at 3381 points, starting to stall here in its melt up to 3400 points.  The Hong Kong based Hang Seng Index is in a similiar situation, up only a few points after gapping higher earlier in the session but still below 28000 points. This is setting up for a potential swing short m0ve below the low moving average, so I’m watching closely for a break:

Japanese stocks were again hit as the Yen firmed once more against USD. The Nikkei fell 0.6% to close at 19385 points, still below the very firm resistance at the 20,000 point level.  The USDJPY pair is now poised right at ATR support at the 109.30 level and could break here tonight sending it down to the 108.50 prior support level:

S&P futures are slowly melting up suggesting a solid session tonight:

The ASX200 tanked on the open, dropping more than half a percent but slowly recovered during the day to be only down 0.1% at the close at 5706 points.  This keeps it back above the 200 day moving average once again, and interestingly Megabank and the Three Iron Ore Amigos were unscathed today, pointing to broader losses.

The Aussie dollar blipped up to the high 79’s on the RBA hold but has steadied here with some momentum behind it at 79.60 or so. The medium term setup is still pushing higher to break through the 79.80 level:

The data calendar is still thin with some secondary PMI readings, some factory order final figures and Treasury auctions.

Comments

  1. Oh, forgot to mention: You would have noticed that, on Friday 1st September – ahead of Fathers Day – I did not extend the *avagoodfathersday* wish/command.

    Why, you may ask. Well, I reckoned [ correctly – no doubt ] that no female would allow you people to touch them in a way that allows for pro-creation. Also, I correctly accept that they would not even go the artificial way with you guys.

    So, now you know, I know.

    PS: Bull market now resuming … get on board, Dikcheads.

    • You have to laugh @Rebirthed “Dikcheads.” And the dosjeveled one has had another “thingy”. Whatever they are, he/it certainly has a fondness for them. And this one was a “pull thingy”. Can’t imagine how that works.

      • Thingy is a reference to say…. homilies some have a mistaken gravitas about and put irretrievable stakes in the ground… cuz… ohh Says Law perchance….

        If you did not grok my inference about numerology equating to a juiced up market on its own financial voodoo because of the nascent fear of how tightly coupled it is, interactivity, short lines of dodgy information [would and elevator be subjected to such perimeters – wheeeeeeeeeeee – dream world thingy] and the psychological conditioning of a huge swath of players…..

        Disheveled….. then we have blackrock server farms utilizing rational agent models as both a price setter and dominate player…. the some say shit happens…. duh…

      • Grok that. You’ve cleared that up nicely for me, old whatsit. I think you have two choices – knock the top off/remove the cork from another one or call an ambulance.

      • I think you should take up a job as an opinionist with the NYT MSM level mob…. maybe you’ll get lucky with one of the gals….

        disheveled… they won’t make as much as you and as such need a market player to forward their expectations – see Bernays… size and girth are not important…. that can be accessed in other exchanges…

      • yeborsky…

        You don’t seem to understand, for what ever reasons, feel comforted that you not alone, I disagree with your perception of reality from a fundamental perspective. If you want to have that conversation I’m quite happy to oblige, otherwise I have to relegate you to the spiritual esoteric tribe and all the crap that it entails….

        disheveled… your choice or free will as it were….

      • I now think skippy is actually a schizophrenic

        Disorganized thinking and speech is considered by some to be the defining symptom of schizophrenia. It often results in severely impaired communication. Mild disorganization may cause people with schizophrenia to switch subjects during a conversation. Moderately impaired thinking may result in speech that is vaguely or loosely related. Severely disorganized thinking often results in “word salad,” or incoherent and incomprehensible speech.

      • @Comming….

        Sorry but that’s not the case, actually things are going quite well, family and myself. Soon 3 of the 4 kids in Uni and youngest having a ball playing club and school Rugby. Wife is returning to work after some long service leave and the guy I’m working for is a top bloke, no BS or personality dysfunction, additionally I have heaps of people asking me to do work for them. Most of the work I do is for older sorts and their quite chuffed with the quality of work and work ethic[s. Seems overall standards have dropped in the last 16 years I’ve been out of the game. No big secret to the reasons for that imo.

        Funny aside. Yesterday was having chat with the young guy from Chile, who has been around a bit and discussing the social upheaval in America. Long story short, it was hilarious when I mentioned the Chicago School and he immediately agreed that its machinations once reserved for others, now applied to its once faithful is playing out as the never ending story. He even had a funny thing to say about – trickle down – where instead of the glass over flowing…. they just keep making the glass taller….. chortle…

        Then my cheeky younger boss likes to put Alex Jones on just to give me a serve during the day, so I put some Wray on or the Joe Rogan interview with Jones.

        If you think I have some sort of high level psychological disorder wtf does that say about so many others here. The epic leaps of logic and deductive reasoning to arrive at the conclusions they do or zealotry about pop culture media personalities that frame the narrative, like a cold reader in establishing their cognitive anchors.

        disheveled…. On the other hand I would accept the title of village idiot [professor emeritus thank you] per Monty Python – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vW3ti9mLnDg

    • More class from the bubblists. Ruining the joint so they can root some skank and shit out more morons. So Aussie.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Speaking of trolls, those nice Bangladeshis scored 300…and David Warner is batting s…l…o…w…l…y…

      Is the game as we know it done for?

      • Thing is with DW he is usually either out for 6 off 2 balls or 100 off 50. Looks like the little guy in his head has said not this time Dave. Anyhoo 2/182 @ 3.5 runs an over is not too bad. Fingers crossed the concentration can continue.
        The Bangladeshi’s can certainly consider themselves in the mix with the big boys these days.

      • Fair dinkum, MB
        The game as we ever knew it is done for. I won’t go on but what encapsulates its demise for me is how good it still was when Alan McGilvray wrote “The game is not the same” back in the mid 80s. He was right, yet since then it’s turned to spiteful, win at all costs rubbish. Just like NRL, AFL, Rugby, professional tennis. The love of the game has, sadly, passed – it’s now about five year olds being trained to be champions, earning huge money without anything to balance their endeavours and being burnt out while they’re still youngsters or relatively so.

      • @Dingwall
        Can we even consider ourselves among the big boys these days? I think I saw a reference somewhere in the last couple of days that Oz is ranked as the no.6 Test side.

      • Test Cricket…. the only game that requires a book to pass the time…. what would club of Rome think – ????

      • Yeb – I would agree we are at the base of the big boy ladder. I have been disheartened by cricket and union for quite a few years now. Something structural has happened and perhaps funds are flowing to all the wrong areas. Like any organisation you get the wrong management and the culture, strategy, the lot goes to shit. I also reminisce about the 70’s and 80’s (think AB grinding out a century against the Windies) but the world has moved on from that. Is it a lost hope? – I hope not.

        PS 2/225 .. keep grinding boys

      • @Ding
        Occasionally, over a few jars with my contemps, we get around to discussing where/why it’s different and talk about the whole gamut of sport. We’ve all been involved in different sports and at various levels and we don’t have the answers. But we have been known to reflect upon the never-to-be-surpassed record of the 11 consecutive League premierships of St George. The factors that we have acknowledged beyond the rare combination of the supreme talents of the individual players all amount to passion and loyalty. The guys had jobs. JOBS!! Billy Smith was a garbo, Norm Provan had a small store (Retravision?) They worked for a living and played for the love of the game. And they lived in the area – Kogarah, Hurstville etc. The membership of teams now changes with the wind or whoever has got the cheque book out. At one point about 3 or 4 years ago, I was reading something about the EPL and found that Arsenal didn’t have an Englishman in the side, let alone a Londoner! Lea’ me out! Wot!?

      • Yeb – was thinking this conversation might get to the EPL. That has been my game from the mid-late 70’s so have seen the changes some good some horrendous. It is not called the World Game for nothing and the EU saw the ramp up of cross-pollination of nationalities. The money is crazy although the numbers involved are huge too. The rules should be repaired or enforced – minimum of X players from home country, minimum of 51% of the club owned by the fans etc etc. Unfortunately the journey on the path is deep in and hard to turn now.
        PS just for OMG value I ask people to guess how many are in the Fantasy Football comp I am in. The largest guess I got so far was 40,000. Just two zero’s short ………

  2. ‘We don’t have anything’: landlords demand rent on flooded Houston homes

    “At first we didn’t think it would be that bad, but then the water came through the wall and up through the carpet,” Fuentes said. “Once we saw the water wasn’t going to stop, we left.”

    After Harvey, it’s clear the secret of Houston’s success has also been its downfall.

    Fuentes, her husband Jaime and their five children, ages ranging from seven months to 14 years, were plucked from the floodwaters by her mother, who arrived in a truck. They are now crammed into her sister’s apartment and with no insurance have little idea where they will live next. Jaime is unable to earn money because his construction job has been paused due to the flooding.

    But while everything has changed for this family, they are still expected to pay for their abandoned home.

    “Our landlords say we have to pay rent and late fees and every day it is going up,” Fuentes said. “We are paying rent for somewhere we can’t live in. They said ‘you aren’t the only ones in this situation’, but what are we supposed to do? We don’t have any money. We don’t have anything.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/04/hurricane-harvey-landlords-demand-rent-for-flooded-homes

    disheveled…. would someone flick these whingers a gold coin and tell them to man up… its disturbing the ambiance in my personal ™ space…

    PS. clean up your mess Hugh before things get really stupid and we have to do the whole post GD again, does your mob just have a penchant for screwing the pooch and with it capitalism… fkwit…

    • Nobody cares. Because right wingers don’t bitch about having to put up with a little flood. It will subside, they will move back, and then they can continue shitting up the world by having five kids and trying to feed them on hammering planks of wood together.

      • Good of you to acknowledge the economic mouth organs and still place all the agency on the unwashed, those suffering massive information arb wing nut….

      • They are definitely more inclined to take agency. You don’t see them dying their hair blue, putting shit in their face and demanding a 100k+ basket weaver job.

      • Wrong line Owen. fyi the right wingers have agreed on the following defence: ‘the free market cannot be expected to foresee a 1000 year flood’. Your line leads right wingers into a checkmate position.
        See the problem is not that the leaners are unable to stop moaning and deal with a little flood, the problem is a theoretical one which cuts even deeper. The lifters didn’t price the little flood correctly.

    • So the LBO phase is over after so much consolidation and board rooms looking like a STD clinic in a small town….