Via the FT today:
Donald Trump’s debut address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday morning is expected to set out a nationalistic foreign policy based on “sovereignty” and which pulls back from any vision of America as an overseas nation-builder and singles out North Korea and Iran as “rogue regimes”.
A senior White House official said Mr Trump’s speech would be “deeply philosophical” and build on two earlier speeches in which the US president set out a vision of engagement with the world that focused on sharing burdens and protecting western civilisation.
The official described Tuesday’s speech as “a huge event”, which he said would lay out the case for co-operation between countries based on outcomes that put national interest and burden-sharing at the heart of US foreign policy. Such a focus sidesteps preoccupations with morality, strictly upheld values or lasting alliances.
…Mr Trump’s foreign policy has often confounded observers who struggle to perceive his outlook amid mixed messages about his ideas. Senior aides have sought to present his “America First” vision as everything from an isolationist abandonment of US interventionism to an endorsement of traditional alliances he had first appeared to reject.
“The crucible of ‘America First’ is not only consistent with the goal of international co-operation but a rational basis for every country to engage in co-operation,” said the official, adding that Mr Trump’s latest foreign policy speech represents a doctrine he is calling “principled realism”.
This comes on the back of the recent US back-down on North Korea in which it acceded to weak sanctions.
Then there’s this from yesterday at the WSJ:
The Trump administration is considering staying in the Paris agreement to fight climate change “under the right conditions,” offering to re-engage in the international deal three months after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would pull out if it didn’t find more favorable terms.
During a climate-change meeting Saturday of more than 30 ministers led by Canada, China and the European Union, in Montreal, U.S. officials broached revising U.S. climate-change goals, two participants said, signaling a compromise…
Which has since descended into all sorts of rumour and denial.
All of the above represent a shift in tone for the Trump Administration. Were Steve Bannon still in the White House, the notion that Trump would engage with the UN or DPRK or any other form of mutlilateralism would have been anathema. Moreover, all would have triggered great outpourings of destructive tweeteridge.
Today all are possible given the tighter rein that General John Kelly, Trump’s new chief of staff, appears to have brought to the West Wing.
I have previously argued that Trump is a classic Jacksonian foreign policy president and that that will result in a lot more noise than it will actual conflict. Jacksonians are by nature isolationist but they are also proud so they don’t go quietly. Moreover, every tin-pot dictator held back by the US cosh will be emboldened as it seeks to withdraw.
There is more Jacksoniansim in the above. But it has subtly shifted. From unilateral withdrawal to “burden-sharing”. From “America First” to “protecting western civilisation”. These are changes in normative from Donald Trump as “American realist” to Donald Trump 2.0, American “principled realist”. That’s a clear improvement.
There remains dangers with the guy, of course. He’s clearly a nut and is capable of random stuff. China is still a very serious bugbear with prospects of destructive policy.
But as a narcissist he is also hollow and needs filling up with other’s admiration. For such a guy, a shift in key personnel could prove to be a substantial change.
As well, with the GOP in desperate need of a policy win, Trump is turning to more domestic issues in tax reform and hurricane reconstruction, so some unity can be expected ahead on that front.
It’s far too early to say but there is at least a chance that the worst of the Trump Administration is behind us.
