Via UBS comes more on the misleading NAB survey:
Aug business conditions rise to a booming post-GFC high of +15.2 (after +14.1) NAB’s survey of business conditions rose further to a booming +15.2 in Aug-17 (UBS: ‘flat’, mkt: nf, average since 1997 of +5.2), the highest since 2007, albeit up only marginally an already strong trend of ~+14 in recent months. Mining lifted amid higher commodity prices (+16, after +10); while non-mining (un-weighted average) held at a strong level (+12.8 after +13.7). Employment intentions surged m/m, consistent with ongoing solid jobs growth ahead (implying ~2%+ y/y); and capacity utilisation remains just below a ~decade high, implying less spare capacity in the economy. Importantly however, selling prices still suggest only moderate CPI in Q3 (after Q2 headline was below expected). That said, the wages bill hit a 5-year high, likely boosted by the minimum wage, causing a trough in wages (as we expected), albeit diverging further from Q2 GDP still showing average earnings stuck at a record low ~flat trend.
Business confidence strangely slumps back to >1-year low of +5.1 (after +11.7) Elsewhere, business confidence strangely retraced sharply to +5.1 in Aug-17 (UBS: ‘steady’, mkt: nf), the lowest since Jul-16, after a strong +11.7 in July, albeit now still near its average of +5.9 since 1997, & given volatility, we don’t read much into this yet.
