New Melbourne suburb to absorb 2 months population growth

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By Leith van Onselen

Yesterday, Melbourne Planning Minister, Richard Wynne, was all over the media trumpeting a new suburb in Melbourne named Mount Atkinson that would supposedly ease Melbourne’s housing affordability crisis. From Domain [my emphasis]:

Construction of a new suburb in Melbourne’s west will begin before the end of the year, with plans to build 8000 homes, four new schools and a new railway station.

Mount Atkinson, south-west of Caroline Springs, is set to become home to more than 22,000 people over the next 15 years.

The suburb, 23 kilometres from the city centre, is part of the state government’s aim to rezone 100,000 lots of land in growth corridors by the end of 2018. The new housing lots will ultimately create 17 new suburbs in outer Melbourne.

The state government has promised the development, on a 1500-hectare site, will boost housing affordability…

“An equivalent house and land package in Sydney would be double the cost that it is here, so we must ensure that we maintain the competitive edge that Melbourne enjoys,” Mr Wynne said.

The developer behind the new suburb, Mount Atkinson Holdings, will fund the building of two state schools and provide the land required for a future train station.

But there is no guarantee the schools or railway station, to be on the Ballarat V/Line service, will be ready by the time residents move in…

The project is expected to deliver 2800 construction jobs per year over 30 years.

Melbourne’s population grew by a monstrous 126,000 people in the 2016 calendar year. And under the State Government’s own forecasts, which surely will be revised upwards given the latest Census, Melbourne’s population projected to grow by 97,000 people annually for the next 35 years:

ScreenHunter_16207 Nov. 21 10.45
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So this new suburb will provide homes for roughly two months worth of population growth!

I hope the Victorian Government is planning to release three new suburbs like this each and every year ad infinitum, because that’s what will be required to outrun the population ponzi choking the state.

Moreover, the Ballarat Train Line is already crush-loaded, with seven of 13 morning peak trains already at 100% capacity and seven of 11 afternoon peak trains standing room only. Heaven help them hundreds of thousands more commuters are added into the mix.

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Melbourne’s population ponzi meltdown continues… And for what?

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.