Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Get set for a falling yuan

by Chris Becker

A whimpering end to an interesting week in Asian stock markets with Japanese and Australian bourses falling while Chinese stocks maintained scratch sessions. Bond markets received the hot money today on safe haven buying, as did Yen as risk gets ready for the big one tonight – the NFP print in the US.

In mainland China the Shanghai Composite is up a few points to 3280 as it again fails to breach the next obvious resistance at the 3300 point level.  The Hong Kong based Hang Seng Index is steady, unable to make anew daily high for most of the week, with very tight daily ranges as its rally takes a pause:

The Nikkei was dragged  0.4% lower to 19952 points, breaking below the psychological important 20,000 point level. The USDJPY pair is trying to find a bottom here just above the 110 handle, but has not been able to make any new session highs for quite some time, so this looks bearish:

S&P futures are coming back slightly as markets gear up for the NFP and Trump tweets to the grand jury tonight:

The ASX200 had a poor finish to the week, losing 0.25% to 5720 points, holding just above the closely watched 200 day moving average. Beleagured Megabank division CBA finished the session down nearly 4% lower as a result of the money laundering allegations, which some brave souls might consider a small long position to try out a dividend yield play here as it reports next week.

The Aussie dollar is coming back after its poor reaction to the trade balance figures yesterday, today coming back to almost the 79.60 level against the USD. It seems the bulls remain in charge and will push aside any bad news and keep the Pacific Peso elevated:

The data calendar finishes with the big one tonight, the US non-farm payroll unemployment print.

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    • migtronixMEMBER

      What happened to all those fun rebar and hrc tulips we all loved trading? 2012 was the best *eats memberberry*

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Um… China’s output? Which they were shuttering for around 2 years then (but not so much now)?

      So yes. China needs LOTS of IO. But wrong metric?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Just remember, we have the best the ore mate, and we’re fucken close aye and fucked our pollies won’t take one for the team. Best ore in the world mate, this super smart young professional chick told me.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Sigh… Skippy’s on the juice again… Mate I’m on your side (and I know what that is) with my comment and Mig is takin’ the raw prawn with his. It’s all good. We still love you. (Maybe not Mig).

        And Mig. LOL. Was she good lookin’? ‘Course she was. She’s in RE!

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        PS for some reason Christopher Pine and Fixer springs to mind Mig. This can’t be good.

      • Your funny TTW… ZH level day traders having a spew about rational agent failures is a whole new level of Darwin Award….

        Disheveled…. personally I would not give a shite if we were back a thousand years or so, tho I disagree with your camps need to drag everyone with you…

  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    The ASX200 had a poor finish to the week, losing 0.25% to 5720 points, holding just above the closely watched 200 day moving average.

    Cash for comment. Willingly paid.

    CB, you have been so spot on with this type of commentary for so long now on the ASX, JPY/AUD, Nikkei and S&P500 that I’d happily crowd-fund at subscription fee prices. Please think about making this an MB option.


    As long as there are GIFF days occasionally.

  2. anyone on Linkedin? surely?
    Quote Jason Willoughby, from the Willoughby Property Group
    “Australia and Perth should be aiming for a much higher population and skilled immigration program. Australia should be aiming for +250 million people and Perth 10 to 20 million in the medium term. For security, economic growth, greater opportunity and efficiencies larger well planned cities bring. Supported by good planning and infrastructure”

  3. … New Zealand Update …


    The Nation – Latest News, Articles and Video | Newshub

    Duncan Garner – Erasing Andy: Inside Jacinda Ardern’s bloodless coup |

    Labour leader Jacinda Ardern restarts her party’s campaign |

    After plummeting in the polls, Labour has tossed out its leader and now has a new campaign slogan.

    Days into her new role as leader, Jacinda Ardern unveiled the party’s slogan at a press conference on Friday afternoon.

    Ardern was appointed leader on Tuesday after Andrew Little stepped down following poor polling. One poll put Labour’s support at its lowest in 20 years – 24 per cent. … view and read more via hyperlink above …

    • Housing – New Zealand Labour Party

      … extract …

      Remove barriers that are stopping Auckland growing up and out

      Labour will remove the Auckland urban growth boundary and free up density controls. This will give Auckland more options to grow, as well as stopping landbankers profiteering and holding up development. New developments, both in Auckland and the rest of New Zealand, will be funded through innovative infrastructure bonds.

      … read the rest via the hyperlink above …

      Labour and its new leader Jacinda Ardern have REPEATEDLY made it clear housing is the primary issue.

      … appropriately … polling is guiding them …

      Poverty, gap between rich & poor and housing affordability, housing shortage, and homelessness dominate discussion in lead-up to election, says Roy Morgan poll |

      Content sourced from Roy Morgan Research

      In mid-2017, and only a few months before the upcoming New Zealand Election which according to Roy Morgan is too close to call*, the key Issues for the New Zealand Election are the inter-related issues of Poverty and the gap between rich & poor, House prices & Housing affordability and Housing shortages & Homelessness.

      The overall picture across all issues was covered extensively in our release on broader New Zealand Concerns released a fortnight ago and available to view here. We look in this release at Economic & Housing-related concerns in greater detail.

      A significant 50% of New Zealanders believe Economic issues (27%) or Housing-related issues (23%) are the most important problems facing New Zealand. … read more via hyperlink above …

      … No wonder Prime Minister English is in despair …

      VIDEO: Bill English on affordable housing in Auckland | Radio New Zealand News