Global profits rebound led by Europe

Global reporting season was pretty decent at a headline level – there are lots of more interesting things happening at a sector and stock level, but I’ll get into that later on in the week.

World EPS Forecasts over time
Source: Factset, MB Fund

Another way to look at the same data is year by year – the last 5 years have seen persistent and significant declines in forecasts. But that trend is changing:

World EPS Forecasts over time by year
Source: Factset, MB Fund
US EPS Forecasts over time
Source: Factset, MB Fund
Australian EPS Forecasts over time
Source: Factset, MB Fund
Eurozone EPS Forecasts over time
Source: Factset, MB Fund
Japanese EPS Forecasts over time
Source: Factset, MB Fund

Where does that leave us?

There are two important things to remember:

  • These are only aggregates – they give an indication of which markets the tides are rising and falling in, but the detail is important for individual stocks. Especially in a market like Australia, where the domination of banks and resources overshadows other sectors.
  • There is no mention of price. We want exposure to the best growth markets, but not at any price. In our international portfolios we are looking for stocks with US exposure that are listed in other markets as we find they are generally a lot cheaper than their US counterparts.

Don’t sleep on the currency effects either. The Euro continued to rise over the last six months, which will slow the earnings growth and is already weighing on equity prices.

Euro Nominal Effective Exchange Rate

Euro NEER
Source: Factset, Nucleus Wealth

If this trend continues we will probably continue to wind back our exposure to Europe.

Damien Klassen is Chief Investment Officer at the Macrobusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.

The information on this blog contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Integrity Private Wealth Pty Ltd, AFSL 436298.

Comments

  1. Title : * Global profits rebound led by Europe ” refers.

    Well
    From recent low – August 2017
    Australia : + 2 percentage points
    Europe : + 1 percentage point

    Next 12 months
    Australia : +3 percentage points
    Europe : +1 percentage point.

    What’s up ?

  2. – “Global profits rebound by Europe” ???? There’re a number of signals that don’t bode well for the US and Europe:
    – 3 “temporary workforce” companies (Manpower, Adecco, Ranstad) all reported lower demand for their “product”. And I am supposed to believe this “Global profits rebound” ?