Via Westpac:
Implications for Q2 GDP growth forecast
We have rounded up our forecast for Q2 GDP growth to 0.7%qtr, 1.6%yr, edged up from 0.6% qtr.
This reflects the upside surprise from equipment spending, plus also an awareness of labour market strength in the quarter, with hours worked up 1.2%. In terms of private infrastructure spending, we will not include the +32.2% (+$4.0bn) from the CWD survey in our Q2 GDP calculations. Rather we now anticipate a broadly neutral figure for infrastructure, broadly in line with the tone of the capex survey. Keep in mind that the importation of a large structure does not impact Australian GDP, output – the rise in investment is offset by higher imports.
