Coalition launches another immigration smoke screen

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By Leith van Onselen

First there was the phony baloney over temporary ‘skilled’ 457 visas. Then there was the shenanigans over the citizenship test. Now the Turnbull Government has launched another immigration smoke screen, with a discussion paper proposing the adoption of “provisional residency” status for migrants as a first step towards being granted permanent residency, and a sharp reduction in the number of visa categories, down from the current figure of 99 to around 10. From The AFR:

Migrants face probation to prove they can integrate into the community and not be a drain on taxpayers before being granted permanent residency under an overhaul of the visa system, the Turnbull government has confirmed…

With the number of border crossings likely to grow from almost 40 million each year to almost 50 million by 2020, the government believes the existing system is too complex for visitors to use and can be improved for tourists, students and business people…

“Most of the permanent visa categories do not have a provisional stage, and applicants do not have to spend any time in Australia prior to applying for – or being granted – permanent residence,” the consultation paper says.

“Reform of Australia’s visa system will build on measures to enhance assessments of visa applicants and holders and to support decisions on the grant or revocation of visas, as recommended by the 2015 Joint Commonwealth-New South Wales review of the Martin Place Siege,” Mr Dutton said.

The minister said Monday’s announcement had no immediate impact on visa holders, with the consultation period open until September 15. The findings “will inform a final package of changes which will be subject to further government approval”.

This is really just another side show. The fundamental issue is that Australia’s permanent migrant intake level is far too high at around 200,000:

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The current intake is well over double the level that existed at the turn of the century and is even higher than the peak of the mining boom.

It is this excessive migrant intake that is causing widespread indigestion in the major capitals via crush-loading economic and social infrastructure (e.g. the road and public transport systems, schools and hospitals), making housing less affordable, not to mention damaging Australia’s natural environment and diluting Australia’s mineral wealth. It is also adding to oversupply in the labour market.

Unless this permanent migrant intake is normalised, population pressures and resentment will continue to grow within the electorate, ultimately leading to a voter backlash against immigration, and possibly threatening the multicultural consensus.

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Tinkering around the edges of Australia’s visa system will not change the degrading lived experience, especially in the major cities where population pressures are extreme.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.