Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Another mixed day in Asia following the poor overnight lead with most bourses finishing in the red, save the local ASX200 on some short covering. The short term bounce in USD seems over already as Yen buyers stepped in, while the Aussie remains elevated.

In mainland China the Shanghai Composite took both half its previous gains, falling 0.3% to 3240, still above previous resistance, now support at 3200 points.  The Hong Kong based Hang Seng Index is doing better, putting in a scratch session to remain just under 26827 points, pausing after its recent breakout above 26,000 points. There is room here for a retracement as daily momentum is indeed reverting to mean:

Japanese stocks continue to have a bad start to the week as Yen reasserts itself against the USD. The Nikkei finished down 0.1% to remain below its psychological important 20,000 point level. The USDJPY pair tried and failed to get back on track, slipping below the 111 handle today but is poised to go lower in the medium term leading into the Thursday FOMC meeting:

S&P futures are flat as both earnings season and political duck hunting season continues tonight:

The ASX200 is absolutely sticking above its very closely watched 200 day moving average, taking back Monday’s losses to finish up 0.7% to 5726 points. Again, banks to the rescue on what looks like epic short covering, but also iron ore issues are having a good day with Fortescue up nearly 2%

The Aussie dollar is holding at its Friday session highs around the 79.40 level against USD, starting to accelerate coming into the London open. The level to beat is the upper end of this rectangle pattern on the hourly chart at the 79.60 level:

The data calendar continues with US earnings plus house prices and consumer confidence.

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    • Way to goading with a broad brush, focusing on the wrong thing.

      Real estate agents and lawyers can accept cash without declaration, effectively acting as major conduits for money laundering, and you choose to pass judgement on the small shop keeper who doesn’t want to be held for ransom by the banks.

      For expert advise look up what Jesus did to the moneychangers.

    • I agree a fair society is 1 in which everyone pays their fair share of tax. Unfortunately thanks to negative gearing, cash economies and double-dutch sandwich money transfer policies for multinational businesses. Tax is optional apparently.

      • And multi national corporations are a better option – ?????- not that said govs are beholden or anything…


    … How markets are supposed to function … for example the budge airline industry …

    Ryanair fares set to fall further as it locks in fuel savings … UK Telegraph

    Ryanair has pledged to cut fares further after it locked in lower prices for its fuel needs for the next two years.

    The low-cost carrier said its fuel bill dropped in the past three months even though passenger numbers rose 12pc to 35m. It has also managed to secure further savings that it will pass on to customers.

    Chief executive Michael O’Leary said 90pc of its fuel requirements were hedged next year at $49 per barrel and that it had taken advantage of recent price dips to increase its hedging level in the first half of 2019 to 45pc at $48 per barrel, giving it firepower to charge less for its flights. Brent crude, the European benchmark, is currently trading around $48.18 a barrel.

    … In contrast… the Sydney housing fiasco …

    Only one Sydney suburb has a median house price below $500k – MacroBusiness

    … concluding …

    … I am constantly amazed that young Sydneysiders aren’t rioting in the streets with pitchforks against the deliberate government policies that have helped cause this mess and robbed them of a housing future. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) … Lateline – 19/07/2017: The suburbs where homeowners could feel first impact of potential housing downturn

    How would Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary deal with the New South Wales / Sydney politicians and bureaucrats ? …

    … Do watch O’Leary’s entertaining ‘innovation’ speech in Brussels (of all places) …

    Michael O Leary (Ryanair) CEO – about EU bureaucracy on Vimeo

  2. The market, is just like me, come to think of it = Cream always rises to the top ; You just can’t keep a good man down .

    Short term = 80
    12 – 18m = 83-85 ; 6300 ; 90 and ……………6

    Ban and ……. then depol

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      The faint sucking sound you hear is the puckering of every politicians sphincter as they desperately recheck to make sure they haven’t got any similar unfortunate oopses lurking in their background.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        It’s okay! Gorgeous George is going to use ignorance of the law as his defence. At our cost mind you. Arsehat. If this ignorance thing works than there will NEVER be a time that a LNP member gets done for anything. Ever.

        I see Adani boy is blaming his mum too. Like Warnie did. Guess that means mum is off to do time for fraud? Wonder how many other members of this gubmint have fingered their mums. Hmmm…

    • Campervan’s a grubby bastard but blaming your mum for your own incompetence and accountability has politics reaching a new low. What an asshole.

    • innocent bystander

      George says:

      “It is the Government’s preliminary view that because the registration was obtained without Senator Canavan’s knowledge or consent, that he is not in breach of Section 44 of the constitution,” he said.

      so does that mean Larissa can come back too?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        It’s Wilbur’s preliminary view that the Constitution doesn’t care two-hoots whether said representative breached it knowingly or not.

        How convenient the last solicitor-general isn’t around anymore to suppress this crap.

        Brandis is ethically moribund.

    • Good pres from Keen as usual. The complexity issue is news to business media to mgt consultants to people generally who have no idea on this.

    • He’s the ‘there’s no problems with housing affordability because I have 15 investment properties on tick’ Lib afaik. Good riddance.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Matt’s welcome is revoked. How can he have the gaul to think he’s any different to Green’s senator number 2.

      LNP. Lessor Nihilo Proctor.