The HIA has tipped a return to growth after ‘shrinkflation’ hit the home renovations market:
“Even though new home building activity has soared to record levels over the past 12 months, conditions for the renovations market have been much more subdued,” Mr Reardon added.
“We expect this to change this year and that the market will again experience growth as the number of detached houses that are reaching the key renovations age is increasing.
“Our survey results also indicate that businesses regard conditions in the renovations industry over the past year positively and suggest a modest increase in the amount of work in the pipeline.
“The environment of record low interest rates and strong dwelling price growth in key markets has certainly been a plus for renovations demand but falling transaction volumes in the established house market have held renovations activity back.
“Over the longer term, renovations activity is set to grow modestly as a result of the backlog of overdue jobs as well as more homes reach the key renovating age. With new home building set to decline over the next couple of years, the gradual strengthening of renovations activity is coming at the right time,” concluded Tim Reardon.
Forecasts contained in the latest HIA Renovations Roundup report predict that activity in 2017 will be consistent with levels in 2016, before returning to a growth phase in 2018 (+2.6 per cent) followed by another expansion of 2.3 per cent in 2019. During 2020, a 2.4 per cent increase is projected to take the value of the market to $34.71 billion.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
