Subdued coal export growth in June persists after Cyclone Debbie impact. ~70% of Aurizon volumes are on the Goonyella and Newlands network which go to Abbot Point, Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminals. These three terminals experienced negative growth in June. For the quarter, coal volumes through QLD bulk ports declined 22%, impacted by Cyclone Debbie. Aurizon reports 4Q above rail volumes on Wednesday 19th July. We forecast QLD coal volumes down 19% YoY.
The Yasi impact in 2011 was -26% so it’s better but is still a big hit. The impact from Yasi on March QTR 2011 GDP was a -2.4% hit to net exports. Coal mines were shut as well then so the impact will be less this time and there’ll be some offset in inventories but it will still be big.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
