China edges towards more reform

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Via the FT:

Xi Jinping instructed China’s state-owned enterprises to lower their debt levels at the weekend but stopped short of announcing the creation of a new financial super-regulator to rein in mounting risks in the sector, as some had expected.

“Deleveraging at SOEs is of the utmost importance,” the Chinese president said at the National Financial Work Conference, which convenes only once every five years. He added that the country’s financial officials must also “get a grip” on so-called “zombie” enterprises kept alive by infusions of cheap credit.

Vigilance against mounting financial risks has become the top policy priority for Mr Xi, who wants to ensure economic and social stability in the run-up to a Communist party congress that will mark the beginning of his second five-year term. In April he convened a special meeting of the party’s 25-member politburo on the subject, saying that “we cannot neglect any risk factors or hidden dangers”.

…Mr Xi, however, did not announce the creation of a central bank-led super regulator to consolidate powers currently held by separate regulatory commissions that oversee the banking, securities and insurance industries. Speculation about such a move in recent months has highlighted behind-the-scenes power struggles between the agencies, with the PBoC expected to come out on top.

More from Reuters:

Speaking at the National Financial Work Conference, Xi said China would set up a financial stability committee under the State Council, boost the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) role managing financial risks and create more cohesive regulation.

“We will strengthen the PBOC’s role in macro-prudential management and in averting systemic risk,” Xi said, adding the country would increase the accountability of regulators and the supervision over regulatory bodies.

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It appears China’s course is set for now. Deleveraging will persist but not via any draconian move to tighten credit. It will be an incremental macroprudential push to shove credit towards more productive enterprise.

That sounds to me more like a slow slowing than a repeat of 2015.

Pretty much as expected.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.