Via Capital Economics:
China’s stimulus-driven recovery is over. Key risks, in particular around the currency, have dissipated, so the coming slowdown should be mild. But the economy’s structural problems are not being addressed. Prospects for growth further ahead are therefore increasingly poor.
Policy support led to a sharp rebound in growth in 2016. By the turn of this year, it had hit nearly 7% on our estimates, well above China’s sustainable rate, which we believe is currently closer to 5%. As such, a slowdown was always on the cards for 2017, particularly with the shift to policy tightening. Recent data suggest that this slowdown is now underway.