Bracket creep to hit millions or Budget to just fall apart?

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By Leith van Onselen

Analysis of data from the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimates that 7.3% of Australians – or nearly 1.2 million people – will be paying the highest marginal tax rate in 2028, compared with just 3% in 2015. The PBO data also shows that the Federal Government’s total income tax revenue will rise from about $177 billion in 2016 to $378 billion in 2028. The projections are based on expectations that Australia’s population will surge to 29.1 million over the next decade. From The Australian:

The PBO pointed out that the government’s income tax windfall would be “largely as a result of wage increases driving income earners into higher income-tax brackets”. Releasing its annual 10-year budget projections yesterday, the PBO revealed the government’s personal income tax haul would almost double to $378bn by 2028 compared with last year, as the average income tax rate on incomes rose from 22.7 per cent last financial year to 25.9 per cent by 2028.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.