Better jobs, but not wages

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Via UBS:

Overall, employment remains very strong & clearly improved in recent months, with 2% y/y the best in over 2 years, ~consistent with positive lead indicators. Unemployment also fell in recent months to a cycle low of 5.6%. This supports the RBA’s ‘positive’ outlook in their minutes. But, the onus is on jobs and wages to lift to avoid slower consumption. Indeed, the key issue remains faster jobs in recent years failed to translate to wages. However, the only relatively recent spike in full-time jobs and hours worked also suggests an improving labour market, which should see wages tick modestly higher ahead, albeit not as much as the jobs data imply (see Figure 2 and Figure 9).

Probably a little lift ahead and then down again next year with:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.