Do-Labour Malcolm toys with coal power loons

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Via The Australian:

The Turnbull government is ­preparing to back the construction of new coal power stations to prevent a dangerous shortfall in electricity supplies, using “reverse auctions” to replace ageing coal-fired generators with new technology already embraced in Japan and China.

The new agenda promises to scale back the need for a controversial clean energy target and clear the way for a peace deal within the Coalition after a bruising debate last week over reforms to favour renewable energy.

Under the reverse-auction plan, private operators would put forward proposals to fill the gap left by the closure of ageing coal generators, allowing the government to choose between clean coal, gas or other options that meet a benchmark for reliability.

…The call for a clean energy target, put forward by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel 10 days ago, sparked fears within the Coalition about price rises from any scheme that punished coal and gas by linking ­financial rewards to low carbon emissions.

Cabinet ministers are now making the case for the reverse-auction concept to give new coal power stations — using high-­energy, low-emissions, or HELE, technology — a chance to bid for the right to replace ageing coal generators when they shut down.

…Mr Turnbull said it would be up to the Australian Electricity Market Operator to suggest a reverse auction in line with the approach being used in the US, Britain and Germany. “They’ve got to define what the size of the problem is likely to be: what the shortfall, what the need for dispatchable power, baseload power, is likely to be,” he said.

Good luck. What loon would build an expensive new coal-fired power station in Australia today? The political risks alone are astronomic. The AFR has a better take:

…AEMO will be asked to identify potential gaps in continuous dispatch or generation, after consulting energy intensive industries such as smelters, and how much continuous power is required to stabilise prices, and recommend the best way to meet the need, including support from governments.

Hope springs eternal for the coal sector! But this is more likely to favour combinations of gas, wind and solar generation backed up by batteries and demand management – curtailing discretionary demand at times of high demand – than any plunge into new coal fired capacity.

New coal is too costly, takes too many years to approve and build, and has too much carbon risk for any investor – private or taxpayer – to back. AEMO chief executive Audrey Zibelman knows it, and AEMO’s recommendations on continuous despatch are much more likely to resemble Finkel’s than the Minerals Council’s.

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Looks like Do-Labor Malcolm is putting one over the Loon Pond here. AEMO knows what MB does. Within five years, more or less, renewable plus battery will be cheaper than coal:

The loons only hope of restoring coal power is to use tax-payer’s dough.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.