I wrote last week how Victoria’s regional rail network, V/Line, is being crush-loaded by ongoing immigration-fueled population growth, which saw Victoria’s population surge by an all-time high 127,500 people in the year to September 2016, and by 540,000 people (+10%) in last five years alone:
I also questioned whether the Liberal Party’s pledge to shift Melbourne’s population growth to Victoria’s regions was realistic, given the state’s regional train network was struggling to cope with existing population loads.
Over the weekend, The ABC reported that the upcoming Victorian Budget will include a $1.45 billion upgrade to the state’s regional rail network, in a bid to boost capacity:
The package includes $435 million dollars for the Gippsland line, improvements to the Warrnambool, Echuca, Bendigo and Ballarat services, and $110 million for the new Surf Coast rail project to Torquay.
“[It] will see upgrades on every single regional line across Victoria, it’s the next step of our regional rail revival, investing in the public transport that regional Victorians deserve and can rely on,” Victorian Public Transport Minister Jacinta Allan said…
Despite the ongoing issues, the state’s regional rail service has experienced a boom in passenger numbers.
Ms Allan said for the month of March V/Line carried 1.9 million trips, more than it has ever carried before.
“That is putting additional pressure on the network and this … is about investing in improving tracks, improving signalling [and] undertaking big infrastructure projects”…
Ms Allan said the package would be funded by money the Commonwealth owes Victoria from the Asset Recycling Fund, following the privatisation of the Port of Melbourne…
This is obviously good news for regional Victoria and, if delivered, should help to ameliorate some of the pressures plaguing the regional rail system.
That said, the respite would only be short-lived, given the State Government’s own forecasts have Victoria’s population growing on average by 115,000 people a year in the 35 years to 2051, well over double historical norms:
With Victoria’s population projected to expand by some 4 million people (+67%) by 2051:
Clearly, maintaining population growth (immigration) at such a high level for such an extended period of time will require massive ongoing investment in the state’s rail networks, not to mention roads, schools, hospitals, and all other forms of physical and social infrastructure. The alternative is to let infrastructure become even more crush-loaded, destroying living standards for the incumbent population.
How does the state plan to pay for such massive investment, given the one-off proceeds from the massive Port of Melbourne privatisation, as well as the boom in stamp duty receipts will soon exhaust? There is, after all, a limit to how many essential assets the state can sell-off, as well as limits to how much tax can be extracted from the property bubble.
Rather than hocking-off assets in a fruitless attempt to expand infrastructure to keep up with population growth, a better and simpler solution would be for the State Government to demand the feds slash Australia’s permanent migrant intake – the driver of Victoria’s population growth – from 200,000 currently to the historical average of around 70,000:
Victorian’s living standards depend on it.
