From Peter van Onselen:
If the government limps along where it is now for another year, Turnbull will ebb ever so close to the 30 consecutive Newspolls trailing Labor that he used as his excuse to remove Tony Abbott. That moment in time risks sending the government into a death spiral as it closes in on the next election, due no later than mid-2019.
If such circumstances come to pass, Turnbull will need to think about an honourable exit stage right. He can’t simply hope that hitting the 30 poll mark will go unnoticed and uncommented on. In truth it could serve his legacy well to step aside on his own terms and give the government the impetus for a political recovery against an unpopular opposition leader.
…Who should that new leader be? Surely the foreign minister and perennial deputy Julie Bishop is the person to step into the Prime Ministership. It would help address the Coalition’s gender imbalance and provide the party with its first female PM, giving her the chance to become the country’s first women to win a majority in that role eight to 10 months after taking over. If there was a strong honeymoon response to the change she could go to the polls early, ahead of the May budget.
This analysis is afflicted with the same shortcoming that has limited all Coalition-related thought for years. It is that the it’s the personnel that are on the nose not the ideas. How can another liberal leader cope any better with:
- the troglodyte backbench;
- the failing Budget;
- falling living standards;
- the failure to address housing, and
- One Nation, as well as the failure to address immigration?
The answer is that they won’t. Not without a radical policy overhaul as well.
