MS: APRA likely to hike bank capital

From Morgan Stanley:

We expect APRA to provide more clarity on capital requirements in coming months, and we think there is higher probability of a bear case outcome than a bull case. ANZ is best positioned and CBA worst positioned for the bear case.

Finalisation of “unquestionably strong”: APRA will publish an information paper on capital “around the middle of the year”, and we think this is likely in late June or early July. It could include a new minimum CET1 ratio, but mortgage risk weightings (RWs) may not be finalised until late 2017.