Laura Tingle says so:
This budget doesn’t just bury Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey but much of the legacy and rhetorical overhang of Peter Costello. This is a government that might say it aspires to smaller government but, under the banner of “fairness, security and opportunity”, puts “guaranteeing essential services” at the heart of its pledge to voters.
The political strategy of the budget was set out months ago. It is based on extensive polling which shows that voters place an even greater premium on access to services like health and education at a time when slow wages growth is making them feel insecure than they do at other times.
The Opposition will find plenty to attack in the 2017 budget – we already know there will be fights on higher education and schools funding.
But the truth is this is a budget built on the issues of concern to voters rather than the budget parameters, from housing affordability to anger about banks, to a lack of urban infrastructure.
The budget does not single handedly solve all these issues but it gives the government much more solid policy platforms from which to engage in the debates than it has had in a very long time.
A political contest when Labor kept stealing the policy initiative is changing and becoming more evenly balanced.
Only two points in riposte:
- the Coalition’s primary threat is not Labor it is One Nation. So long as the latter exists it will never hold power again;
- it’s all very well to tax and spend but the government will still be judged on whether it meets it forecasts. And it won’t by a very long way.
On the first, ON supporters may be slightly reassured by infrastructure spending and the foreign property buyer measures but given the Budget persists with absurd levels of immigration it is not going to change folk’s minds.
On the second, by year end the sovereign downgrades will begin and the traditional Coalition brand of good economic management will decline right along with it. They’re abandoning that ahead of time, sure, but it’ll still hurt and will put a rocket under the Parallel PM.
The final point to make is that ON voters want legitimacy back in politics – with folks that shoot straight – and the swing from Do-nothing Malcolm to Do-Labor Malcolm is not going to convince anyone that he is fair dinkum.
I can’t see this Budget resetting his chances. It’s still cut immigration or it’s bust.
