Over time, MB has most often come down on the side of backing the US against China in Australia’s ongoing strategic straddle. But today it is fair to say that there are legitimate reasons to consider Chinese leadership as well, via Peter Hartcher:
Barack Obama last year told his fellow Americans: “If we don’t write the rules, China will write the rules out in that region,” the Asia-Pacific. And that’s exactly what’s happening.
…First it was trade. As Trump tore up the US-led, 12-nation Transpacific Partnership agreement, China’s President Xi Jinping declared in pointed contrast: “China will not shut the door to the outside world but will open it even wider.” China already dominates world trade by its sheer scale; its work on new regional and bilateral deals will make it an active rule-maker, as well.
…Then it was climate change. Trump ranted that climate change was a “Chinese conspiracy”. When he signed an executive order in March undoing much of Obama’s work to cut carbon emissions, Trump opened the way for China to lead. Beijing, the world’s biggest carbon emitter, didn’t have to do much to look like a leader. It recommitted itself to its Paris agreement undertakings.
…Then there was North Korea. Trump specifically asked Beijing to take the lead in crafting a plan to curb North Korea’s relentless nuclear missile program. After realising there are no easy options on this problem, Trump announced Xi is “a very good man” and that “I believe he is trying hard” to solve the problem in Pyongyang.
…Finally there is China’s “Belt and Road” plan. Xi opened a meeting in Beijing on Sunday to discuss the proposal, with 100 countries including 28 heads of state in attendance.
It’s a good list of positives and while the Trumpian US continues to pursue policies as destructive as denying climate change and withdrawing from world trade, Chinese influence will rightly grow.
