Credit Suisse slams ABS numberwang, calls multiple rate cuts

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From Credit Suisse today:

■ Great headlines. Employment came in well above expectations, rising by 37.4k in April. This follows a strong growth of 60k in March. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7% from 5.9%.

■ Poor details. However, the headlines mask some more sinister details. The quality of job creation was low, with full-time employment falling by 11.6k over the month. In our view, weakness would have been even greater but for yet another month of upward sample rotation bias. Aggregate hours worked fell by 0.3% in April, with weakness notable across all states except for Qld and SA. Trend weakness in the NSW labour market has continued on this metric.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.