Via Investing in Chinese Stocks. From a Guotai Junan report:
Calculated in December 2016 data. Net assets as a substitute for capital indicators, the securities industry in December net assets of 1.64 trillion yuan, the trust industry net assets of 0.45 trillion yuan, the futures industry has not yet announced, according to the previous data estimate of about 0.09 trillion yuan. Fund subsidiary net assets to replace the registered capital of 0.005 trillion yuan. The total net assets of the above industries is 2.19 trillion yuan. Then, the statistics of the size of the four industries’ management assets, December 2016 data was 41.16 trillion yuan.
The net assets of the industry divided by the total assets of the industry management, the result is 5.31%. Of course, you can also use another denominator, that is, the total amount of non-bank loans (December 2016 26.53 trillion yuan) when the denominator, calculated 8.24%.
This ratio is the degree of coverage of the net capital of non-banking institutions, that is, a relatively rough capital adequacy ratio, for reference only. But we found that this is a very low level, while observing the data from 2014 to the present, it can be found that the latter proportion is still declining in the trend.
In other words, “if this business is not money, then this non-banking institutions to take their own capital to absorb the loss” of this assumption, for some non-banking sector, it is likely to be difficult, at least impossible Completely absorbed. Because of this credit intermediary’s own capital strength is limited. Therefore, the bank is still highly exposed to the bottom of the assets of corporate credit risk, according to non-silver put to set the risk weight, is clearly unreasonable.
And iFeng: 招商固收：实体经济一定会对金融去杠杆做出剧烈反应
Before the data was released, we had the following assumptions about the data for the next quarter:
1) Industrial growth will remain at a relatively high level. Unless the commodity prices continue to plummet, the industrial enterprises will still maintain relatively rapid production, which will lead to inventory is still picking up, and based on the production method of GDP data looks “not weak” (the chain will be slightly lower than the marginal, but phase Than other indicators should be acceptable);
2) Demand side of the investment will fall sharply. In the second quarter, the “deleveraging” behavior of financial institutions has actually occurred, and fixed asset investment will face the financing level (the growth rate of the source of funds will remain negative), the superimposed real estate investment may be “cold”, the second quarter fixed assets investment There is the possibility of over-expected fall;
3) currency credit and financing data “diving”. Exogenous and endogenous shocks led to “broad credit” in contraction, financial institutions to create a substantial decline in the ability to create money, the second quarter of monetary credit and financing data is likely to “dive”, compared to the first quarter, a single month new credit may ” Waist cut “, monetary growth may also move closer to single digits.
Historical experience shows that ignoring the “adjustment” signal issued by the capital market, often misled by the “good data” of the past, the inertia of the future data, we believe that the expectations have begun to deteriorate, the actual data in the marginal Adjustment is just beginning, which will strengthen the previous expectations, leading to more volatile asset prices.
Financial and real economy PK, no one can be immune. Do not simply think that the economy can continue to “carry”, that you can have “steady growth” at the same time with “deleveraging”, because the financial market is expected to adjust faster, the final real economy will have a violent reaction to deleveraging. We believe that in this PK, the bond market will probably be “accidentally injured.”
And the top story at iFeng finance: first-tier tightens, second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier face big adjustment risk. Amid the tightening at banks, 12 lenders have halted lending for second homes. iFeng: 一线城市房贷全面收紧 二、三、四线面临更大调整风险
Following the Beijing and Shanghai, Guangzhou has recently tightened mortgage policy, the first set of mortgage interest rates to raise interest rates to the benchmark. At this point, the four first-tier cities have all raised the mortgage interest rates, improve the cost of purchase funds to achieve leverage, control the purpose of the property market. Insiders believe that with the deepening of the regulation, the future into the “four limits” (purchase, limit loans, limit, limit sale) of the city will continue to expand, leading the real estate market continued hot core power has emerged Signs of decay, especially the unrealistically high prices, serious overdraft of the second, third and fourth tier cities, face the risk of adjustment.
Reporters from the Guangzhou local real estate agencies and related banks were informed that from May 8, Guangzhou, the four largest state-owned banks mortgage interest rates fully raised, all in accordance with the benchmark interest rate. The first announced the increase in the first suite loan interest rate is CCB, from May 6 onwards, China Construction Bank of Guangzhou, the first set of mortgage customer loan interest rates raised to the benchmark interest rate. Subsequently, ICBC, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and other state-owned banks have to follow up from May 8 from the four major state-owned banks in Guangzhou to cancel the first set of mortgage interest rates. Other small and medium-sized joint-stock banks are still the first home 5% discount rate, but does not rule out the next line to the state line, raise the possibility of interest rates.
In Shenzhen, according to the reporter to understand, although the bank has no clear policy introduced, but in the specific operation of the preferential interest rate has been difficult to pass approval. “We are sent to the bank list, there is almost no preferential interest rate can be approved.” In other words, in practice, the first set of loans are basically in accordance with the benchmark interest rate. “Shenzhen Zhongyuan real estate stakeholders told reporters.
…At the same time, into the property market regulation “four limits” of the city will continue to expand, some urban control policies will become more severe. From the current transaction data, Shenzhen, Suzhou and other cities have been “there is no market price” signs, the property market continued shrinkage. Kerry and real estate research center that the leading real estate market continues to hot the core power has been signs of decay.
Easy to live in China CEO Ding Zuyu is expected, with the regulation to further spread and upgrade, part of the housing prices rose too fast, the expected overdraft expected future two, three, four-tier city property market will face greater risk adjustment. Housing prices need to be cautious, consider the market, monetary policy and many other factors, beware of high prices to bring greater investment risk.
Victims are mounting already, SCMP: Homelink, China’s biggest property agent, closes 87 branches in Beijing as buying curbs bite
China’s largest property agency, Homelink, confirmed on Tuesday that it has closed 87 branches in Beijing, underscoring the depth of the city’s real estate market woes after unprecedented government tightening.
The company, which recently attracted China Vanke as an investor, said in a statement that it had shut the outlets after a fourth straight week of falling business in the wake of the harshest purchase restrictions in the capital’s history. Previous reports said Homelink would shut down 300 stores across Beijing. The agent did not say how many more stores it plans to close.
…Homelink’s own data showed that transactions it dealt with fell to 3,145 units in April, a 77 per cent plunge from the previous month.
…The wave of agency closures was also attributed to a campaign to shut down outlets converted from the first floor of residential buildings. Homelink lost 34 stores because of that crackdown.
It looks like Beijing could see 1,000 or more branch closings in 2017.
Commodity bust to continue.
