And not before time, via UBS on GMA:
Balance of risk has tilted back to the negatives, in our view
At the risk of positive news emerging in the 1Q17 update tomorrow, we’re downgrading our GMA rating to Sell. For the foreseeable future, the investment case will in our view be a tussle between GMA’s positive capital return profile and the ROE/earnings risk that we think will arise from negative operational leverage and a normalising credit cycle. As GMA’s discount to book has narrowed to 14% vs 25% over the past year and 30% through 2016, the balance of risk has once again skewed to the downside, in our view. We lower growth drivers, consider operational leverage and fine-tune capital forecasts in this review.
