Adios Chinese liquidity

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From Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Mark Orsley and I have been working on a “Chinese Liquidity Monitor” which tracks the PBoC’s various measures (repos, reverse repos, OMOs, SLFs, MLFs, Pledged Supplementary programs)—see below. The key point here: it’s not just the sharp decline in the ‘rate of change’ of PBoC ‘lending’ / ‘financing’ / ‘credit creation’….it’s that liquidity is being outright REMOVED.

And:

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“The same set, the latest offer only 785 million.” Yesterday, the purchase of Ms. He excitedly to the latest housing screenshots to the family, for the month to hold back and feel happy to buy a house.

Ms. Ho has been concerned about the North Second Ring Road north of the district, although it is commonly known as the “old broken small”, but the location is good, near the school is also good. At the beginning of March, Ms. Ho saw the intermediary store out of a set of altar north of 62 square meters of small two homes, offer 8.8 million yuan. “At that time I also went to see, is hesitant, Beijing introduced the property market regulation, and later a family to discuss, then slowly said.

This gentle, to Ms. Ho brought good news. April 20, Ms. Ho log on the intermediary site, they found that the offer of this property has been reduced from 8.8 million yuan to 8.1 million yuan. Yesterday, she turned around and found the new listing of the same size units, the latest offer price of 7.85 million yuan.

“In less than a month, the listing price down nearly $ 1 million.” Ms. Ho felt that although this is only a case, but also shows that the owners have become anxious. “Brokers also told me that the recent market turnover is really bad, and so maybe there is hope to fall.”

Credit controls worked according to data from 我爱我家. The proportion of credit fell 10 percentage points as a share of financing, with cash, public housing funds and “other” making up the difference:

I love my home market research institute to provide data, in April 2017 Beijing existing home transactions in a variety of payment methods, the full payment ratio of 37.51%, increased by 8.37% from March; commercial loans were 41.38% of purchases, down 10% from March; municipal provident fund to pay the proportion of 15.78%, increased by 1.22% in March; other payments accounted for 5.33%, an increase of 1.42%.

And, Beijing April existing home sales data from real estate agency 我爱我家。March 17 is highlighted because it marks the rollout of several buying restrictions.

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Average price also fell 6.8 percent from March. Some other agencies are closing offices:

In a number of New Deal effect superposition, second-hand volume decline in the case, some intermediary companies have begun to appear off shop.

Reporters learned through the field survey: located in Chaoyang Joy City, northwest chain stores have been closed recently, inside and outside the store items have been evacuated, brokers have left.

According to the broker said, the world is closing the part of the line under the store, the total number of shops is expected to more than 300, the more than 300 stores are mainly distributed in the Central Beijing area and around Beijing, “I sold homes before and now I’m ready to sell Hainan houses, “said a home broker.

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iFeng: 360度限购后 4月北京楼市的冷静与疯狂

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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