Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Reddit + - Just maybe that giant cyclone was caused by global warming By Houses and Holes in Carbon Economyat 12:45 pm on April 21, 2017 | 38 comments The next time someone tells you climate change is all a fake, direct them to these charts from Macquarie: Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Reddit + - YOU MAY ALSO BE INTERESTED IN How many different ways can Tony Abbott wreck the climate?Chalk up another one, via Phil Coorey: The Finkel delivers, but for what?Do-Labor Malcolm is happy at the AFR: Prime Loon Pond stirs on energyFrom King Toad of the Loon Pond: Mr Abbott said Kohler drops energy grenade into loon pondFrom Alan Kohler today: Sorry Richo, but I’m Comments mondur April 21, 2017 at 12:49 pm lol, data over 100 years……. how long has the earth existed again. you clown! Houses and HolesMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 12:52 pm I don’t know if it’s true. But it’s obvious that it might be. And if it is your species is dead. Who’s the clown? george fripley April 21, 2017 at 1:24 pm It’s probably true….it’s not as if somebody has just made a correlation between rising temps etc with CO2 and said ‘there you go!’. There’s pretty good understanding of the mechanisms involved, possible alternative causes have been investigated and mostly debunked, and now with really good info on sea temperatures (where a great deal of the increasing heat is being stored – and this relates directly to formation of and strength if storms – ie you need about 27 degrees C surface temp of a cyclone to form), both at surface and at depth, the models are getting better. So yeah, I’d say Mondur is the clown here. Head stuck well into the sand. AndrewMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 1:21 pm @mondur – previous changes to climate occurred over much longer periods of time (except cataclysmic events like the one that ended the dinosaurs reign) and primates and everything else had far more time to adapt. It is exactly the fact that we have had such a big change in such a small time (i.e. 100 years) that means we’re hurtling towards disaster. Climate change deniers are like population growthists – they’re the ones who don’t understand basic maths or chemistry but still think their conclusions are valid. desmodromicMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 1:28 pm @ Andrew. Agree, it is the rate of change that is dangerous to the economy and life.Whether it has been hotter or colder in the distant past is irrelevant. The Lorax April 21, 2017 at 2:27 pm @mondur: “how long has the earth existed again” About 6,000 years according to your lot. Denis413MEMBER April 21, 2017 at 3:27 pm c.6000 years I believe. EDIT: Sorry Lorax – you beat me too it 🙂 [email protected] April 21, 2017 at 1:03 pm I remember as a young kid talking to a very old man who told me that when “wireless” came in every disease and weather were blamed on radio waves, then nuclear testing, and then radiation from TV boxes. I wonder what’ll eventually replace CO2? JasonMNan April 21, 2017 at 1:27 pm Stop the presses! Treibs is supplying us with evidence in the form of vague memories of what some random old timer told him about his understanding of science. Curious April 23, 2017 at 12:05 am I remember 25 years ago looking at glacier photographs from 1900 and now and noticing the clear climate warming over the (then 90 year) period. The science has been clear enough for all that time. What has been less clear is the politics of influencing decision makers, and determining the tradeoff of cost vs effectiveness as to how to respond to this trend. And so far the response has been ineffective. Developing countries see that tradeoff very differently to elites in wealthy Western countries. Additionally within Western countries those against responding have had political success against those proposing mitigation based change. So the logical conclusion is to assume that mitigation efforts in reducing CO2 will be unsuccessful and that efforts need to go to building new infrastructure to deal with the effects, not to mention government spending uplift on security to protect their populations.. This will be large and take generations to achieve. I have observed informed and reliable observers argue that the Syrian crisis has been made much worse by unprecedented drought provoking mass population movement. This is not unprecedented in history; but as an earlier writer noted, the faster speed of change produces a concentration of cost on the current generation, and would be more likely to cause populations to move and wars to break out. Which is much more serious than whether the weather has changed near you. Jacob April 21, 2017 at 1:08 pm Maybe the Greens should demand that every foreign-owned house in AUS must have a Powerwall and rainwater tank attached to it. bolstroodMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 1:16 pm That is a very good idea Jacob, It will come to that given the mess that our energy market’s are in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELaBzj7cn14 http://www.echo.net.au/2017/04/great-gas-con-cheaper-cleaner-alternatives/ glambMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 1:42 pm Actually – it would be good policy to make a condition of every house sold to have Solar Panels and every house sold worth $700k or more to include batteries. We would solve our ‘duck curve’ problem at no cost to the government within 10 years. Jacob April 22, 2017 at 10:10 am I disagree. I just moved into a house with 4.5L flush toilets! They are rubbish! And if I have a rainwater tank, what business is it of the “Liberal” party to determine the size of my toilets! And given that the ALP and Greens are hell bent on doubling the population of AUS, are they going to force every new house to have 2.25L flush toilets? The lack of logic is outrageous. HadronCollision April 21, 2017 at 2:20 pm Great idea mate Better idea than all this gerrymander around new gas stations and pipelines and handouts to corporate cronieswhatever else is going on. SoMPLSBoyMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 1:21 pm “Insurers paid out around $50 billion for natural disaster claims last year, almost double 2015’s payout of $27 billion, reinsurer Munich Re said in its annual natural catastrophe review on Wednesday” http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2017/01/04/437111.htm “$125 bil of losses were uninsured.” It’s just money! DennisMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 7:43 pm Nah, it’s not just money, it’s just paper. lol bcnichMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 1:36 pm Of course these things are true as well as sunspots and moon etc that affect markets We are human beings and global warming is true fitzroyMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 1:48 pm Disclaimer: I think man made global warming is obvious but then again I am scientifically trained and I acknowledge that other people who are scientifically trained disagree with me (but not many). Further the IPCC report has 831 experts who support my view. https://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/factsheets/FS_select_authors.pdf However they too may be wrong. But given what is at stake why wouldn’t one deal with the possibility that they may be right and act accordingly? JasonMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 1:53 pm Yep – almost any sort of probability weighting means that this needs to be taken far more seriously than it is. HadronCollision April 21, 2017 at 2:21 pm This. This is the core issue. Can’t just fuckoffski to Earth 2, can we now. Unfortunately the fuckknuckle deniers don’t get that NhibboMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 4:39 pm But given what is at stake why wouldn’t one deal with the possibility that they may be right and act accordingly? I suspect doing so would require admitting you were wrong. While scientifically trained people will readily adapt understanding as new information comes to light, Hedgehogs (Nate Silvers description in “Separating the signal from the noise”) have great difficulty in adjusting their beliefs, regardless of what evidence is staring them in the face. Everything/everyone other is at fault right up until they are physically laid low by what is happening around them. So unfortunately, the possibility of acting according to what is at stake for climate change deniers is very low. fitzroyMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 5:05 pm “I beseech you in the bowels of Christ think it possible you may be mistaken.” Cromwell in a letter to the general assembly of the Church of Scotland. 1650 (when war was one of the possibilities). NhibboMEMBER April 22, 2017 at 3:56 pm Fitzroy, to my mind, Cromwell being “in the bowels of Christ” sounds very much like a mistake LOL. And only a fool could expect to never be mistaken, but once again, “But given what is at stake why wouldn’t one deal with the possibility that they may be right and act accordingly?” NhibboMEMBER April 22, 2017 at 4:08 pm Incidentally Fitzroy, my Grandfather came from a city called Bolton, the only pro Parliamentarian town in a region very pro Royalist. Most of it’s citizens were massacred by King Charles’s cavalier, Rupert of the Rhine, in 1644. Were they wrong to say what they believed to be right, and end up dead or enslaved, or were the perpetrators of the massacre wrong (Prince Rupert was later captured and executed outside the Bolton inn)….was he wrong to back the wrong side…oh points of view but always consequences. DominicMEMBER April 22, 2017 at 9:15 pm As a matter of interest: how many of these 831 experts’ livelihoods is gleaned from researching climate change? Just askin … ChrisMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 2:03 pm The fact is the earth is warming, whats bs is the carbon + man made bit. Check this out for one : http://www.longrangeweather.com/images/gtemps.jpg AndrewMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 2:22 pm Putting more CO2 into the atmosphere is an additional factor. Of course there are other influences, but do you understand the concept of greenhouse gases? HadronCollision April 21, 2017 at 2:23 pm Ah yes, Chris has just debunked all the understood science with this excellent pictograph Chris I like the cut of your jib and would like to subscribe to your weekly ezine Where can I telegram a subscription request to sir? BabundaMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 2:51 pm +1 Chris. I think your pic is based on the milankovitch cycles theory right? This alternative explanation (to carbon + man made) piqued my interest years ago and I haven’t been able to kick it. Also haven’t yet come across a convincing debunking of it either oliver47MEMBER April 21, 2017 at 5:36 pm A biblical time-scale and a qualitative temperature scale, is egregiously misleading to many readers. MaudeLynne April 22, 2017 at 5:19 pm Neat chart, Chris. Two problems: 1. Why no vertical scale? Isn’t temperature the point of the chart? Are all the points qualitative? 2. The bit after 2016 is fanciful. What’s the evidence predicting the plunging global temp? Try this chart: https://xkcd.com/1732/ It will offer an alternative view, and no less valid. ResearchtimeMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 4:26 pm Dodgy data… not to say that I don’t believe in climate change, nor mans influence. But seriously, a five second look at some of those data sets and questions need to be asked. Just because it comes from MQG – doesn’t mean its not infallible. There is too much belief and not enough questions. Especially from you H&H, expect it from some others because they are just sheep… zentaoMEMBER April 21, 2017 at 7:31 pm The failure of science teaching is profound. I doubt half of the people posting on this thread could postulate a hypothesis, or critique a a study, but these days we are all experts on climate science cos we saw the sun one day DarkMatterMEMBER April 22, 2017 at 3:18 am The interesting thing here is how poorly understood is the nature of complex systems and causality. We like to think in terms of terms of transactional logic – A causes B. Politicians won’t enforce a carbon tax and this causes a cyclone. Statistics helps a little, but statistics has been tarnished to the point of ruin. There is a delicious mystery at the heart of nature, in that complex systems seem to behave in a way that is uncorrelated, yet ordered. Have you ever seen images of fractal landscapes? They are virtually indistinguishable from real life. The trick is they use layers of noise functions – perlin noise. Noise functions are sort of like the sine waves of fourier series, but are curves that join uncorrelated periodic points. When you add them up, you get things that look exactly like nature, however these patterns are ultimately not correlated with previous states. The implication here is that real life systems – like climate, economics, landscapes – are probably similar, and that means that any state or event may not be correlated with previous states. Only immutable are preserved – matter and energy. This leaves us with a dilemma. A cyclone forming in March is more or less an independent random event, yet if you could go back in time by 10 years and rerun the climate, then the CO2 level might have an influence on how often similar March cyclones form. Well, you might just think that is statistics, but it leads to a more troubling idea, that if complex systems are in fact uncorrelated over a period of time, then how can we model them? Higgins April 22, 2017 at 1:15 pm The plant will recover … Humans may die out … It’s about time FeknameMEMBER April 24, 2017 at 12:17 pm The issue is clearly a lack of pirates. tsport100 April 24, 2017 at 1:10 pm It doesn’t really take much intelligence to comprehend the scale of the issue when even a relatively modest sized (1.6 GW) coal powered thermal generator like Hazelwood burnt through 55,000 tonnes of coal every single day while belching CO2 into the atmosphere in equal volume, then multiply that by the global scale of coal power generation…. it is logically going to have long term unintended consequences… What satisfaction old farts brain-washed by talk back radio get out of denial is more of a mystery..