“It is likely that overall mortgage lending will slow, as the acceleration in non-interest-only owner-occupier lending needed to offset the drags from macro-prudential tightening seems implausibly large…because lending, particularly in the investor category, has been key to driving housing market activity…
The drag on genuine new housing transactions is clear, and could take some of the heat out of house price growth, given the established link between turnover and price.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
