Beijing housing market hits brick wall

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Via Investing in Chinese Stocks.

One Beijing real estate broker has seen transactions fall 70 percent in the wake of the March 17 buying restrictions.

iFeng: 部分一线城市二手房卖方主动降价 成交量大减

Here is the Chaoyang District, Beijing real estate registration business center. In Beijing, every one of the four existing home sales is completed here. According to the annual total of about 270,000 sets of existing housing, existing housing transactions to measure it, last year, where the volume of transactions in the 70000 or so (269223 * 0.26 = 69998).

This means: here every day there are 270 sets of existing-homes complete the transfer transaction. In the most hot market transactions, where people are coming and going every day, bustling, bustling. But we have also entered the hall which has seen a significant decline in traffic has been.

Trading floor near the residents: trading volume fell a lot, and last year and the first half (March) than the decline too much.

An intermediary store official told reporters: their stores cover the surrounding three district, a total of about 7000 sets of housing. Since March 17, they have only signed five sets, of which there were three sales negotiated before the 317 policy.

Lianjia real estate chief marketing officer Song Qi: 317 after the New Deal, the Beijing chain of single trading volume, probably less than 1,000 sets, and that before the New Deal compared to it, in fact, down 73%.

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Prices are also coming down, from a peak of 5.3 to 5.35 million down to 5.2 million. The city of Beijing is also recording a drop in sales:

Beijing Municipal Construction Committee data: April first half (April 1 – April 15), Beijing existing housing a total of 8096 sets signed, compared with the second half of March fell 51.4%, year-on-year from April 2016 fell 37.4% in the first half.

Industry insiders say the home price increase in March was an echo effect from February:

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In the reporter’s survey, we can easily find: existing housing turnover has been a significant decline, many sellers have begun to take the initiative to cut prices, but according to the National Bureau of Statistics released last week, 70 cities in the price data: Beijing home prices rose 2.2%. What is the reason for this? Future existing housing transaction price trend will be how?

In this regard, the industry said: Due to the existence of time lag, the March house price data is mainly reflected in February since the actual transaction reached. March 17 since the vast majority of market transactions will be reflected in the transaction data since April.

More tightening coming, via Caijing: 任泽平:预计本轮房价上涨近尾声 调整到2018上半年

Hot cities will increase limits on home purchases and home loans, the CBRC is strictly prohibited mortgage inflows into the real estate sector, we expect this round of housing price rises is near the end, may be adjusted to the first half of 2018. Long-term population to the metropolitan area inflow trend unchanged, medium-sized metropolitan area land supply is not ideal, short-term financial tightening, so the future real estate adjustment is mainly short-term adjustment.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.