As the worst government in living memory puts the final touches on its centerpiece budget, it is about to mugged by reality. UBS today offers a nice take on what’s looked for today:
A modest ~$10bn better fiscal profile, helped by better commods & profits
Treasurer Morrison brings down the 17/18 Commonwealth Budget on May 9. The combination of a stronger underlying economy, higher received corporate taxes, higher than expected commodity prices (which conservatively must boost figuring for the next year or so), and a current year budget tracking better than forecast (mostly on less outlays) – all offset partly by soft (personal tax) revenue – suggest this should be the first budget in a number of years showing modest improvement from the MYEFO.
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