Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Markets in Asia are mixed to say the least with Chinese bourses surging and the rest struggling as Yen and Aussie dollar lift higher against a floundering USD. Australian 10 year bond yields are falling again while the oil price slipped in weak Asian trade.

The Shanghai Composite was up before the long lunch break but has come back a few points lower, currently at 3232 points, unable to build momentum above local support at 3200 level following Friday’s tepid turnout. The Hang Seng Index is up 0.6% to 24460 points, holding above the 24000 points resistance level. A new daily high on the daily chart after last week’s late breakthrough should sustain it here:

HSI.fsDaily

Japanese stock markets are closed for a holiday with light trading in futures indicating a drop on the return to tomorrow. Yen is also thinly going on with a slight fall in the USDJPY pair, currently oversold at 112.50 but not making any suggestions of a rebound soon:

USDJPYH4

S&P futures are down nearly 0.3% as a lack of confidence grips US stocks following last weeks Fed rate rise. The four hourly chart is not looking good here but I’m watching tentative support to hold at the ATR rolling level around 2370 points tonight on the open:

S&P.fsH4

The ASX200 closed down 0.4% to 5778 points, selling off throughout the session in a very cautious move across all sectors. Resistance at 5800 points is the key are to watch on the upside here.

The Aussie dollar however is doubling down as the yield spread widens, building above the 77 handle against USD, currently at 72.30 with the hourly chart suggesting more to follow on the London open:

AUDUSDH1

The data calendar starts the week very slowly with no major releases of note overnight.

Comments

    • You have a job and income problem which is acerbated by productivity hording….. 34T in tax havens is orders of magnitude what was used to fix the payment system problem associated with the GFC….

      disheveled…. loans and credit impairment are a result of decades previous actions….

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Mr Medcraft has stronger words for the mortgage market in Australia.

        “I think the residential mortgage market is disgraceful in this country,” Mr Medcraft said.

        “The corporate sector abandoned prime rates a while ago,” he said.

        So does that mean it’s all been subprime since ?…….wonder what deffines as “a while ? ……….different regulators with different takes on “that which will not speak its name ” …That pile under the carpet is giving off a bad smell and starting bulge a bit

    • There has been no significant rise in mortgage stress, defaults or FHB purchases of existing property. APRA has things exactly where it would like them to be.

      Any housing price negatives have been limited to mining activity dependent areas; and even those have held up much better than some have expected.

      So well in fact that some Tier 1 mortgage providers are beginning to self-insure LMI. How could anything possibly be wrong in such an investor friendly environment? (the recent investor-focussed rate rises are simply the sensible implementation of APRA’s requirements and allow for rebalancing of some books’ loan profiles).

    • truthisfashionable

      Are my house owning colleagues right in saying that both RBA and now ASIC are pointing the finger at APRA for failing to tighten macro-prudential rules and allowing the ‘bubble’ to expand at a ridiculous rate of knots?

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