Macro Afternoon

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by Chris Becker

Outside China, Asian markets have reacted positively to the big overnight leads in stocks, with the USD continuing to strengthen against the majors providing a positive boost to Japanese stocks in particular. Commodities outside iron ore were largely unchanged.

The Shanghai Composite closed down 0.5%, taking back yesterdays gains to be at 3230 points. The Hang Seng Index conversely is higher, up 0.4% to 23,880, still a little bit below the 24000 points level. The daily chart is still suggesting what looks like a top here as price hovers around the low daily moving average and below the daily trendline:

HSI.fsDaily

Japanese stocks are going great guns as everyone is selling off Yen against USD, providing a big tailwind. The Nikkei closed up nearly 1% higher to finish at 19,564 points. The hourly chart for USDJPY shows another leg up higher from the big breakout, now past the 114 handle and looking a little overcooked.

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USDJPYH1

S&P futures remain at their hugely elevated position – this is way too far and fast and I expect a retracement:

S&P.fsH4
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The ASX200 finally had a decent session, closing up over 1.2% or 7 points to be at 5776 points, still a little below the 5800 point resistance zone but beginning to claw back the recent retracement.

The Aussie dollar slumped immediately on the Sydney open, rejecting overhead resistance at the 77 handle as the USD bulls take the lead. The daily downtrend line remains intact and I expect yesterday’s lows at the 76.40 to come under threat later tonight:

AUDUSDH1
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The data calendar includes several Euro-centric releases tonight, namely EZ wide CPI print for February.