Ahead of the 2017 WA state election due on March 11, we outline some of the implications from polling results and liaison with WA political observers.
Lower house — Feedback from discussions suggests there is a high probability (~70%) of a Labor majority victory in the lower house. This probability is more conservative than the 80% to 95% that has been implied in prediction markets. Note that Labor is required to win 10 seats to form government and discussions so far point to a likely narrow win by around 2 seats. There is also a suggestion of a scenario if Labor secures 12 seats then 5 of these would probably come from preference flows.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
