Dalian thumped but nobody cares

Dalian is down the better part of -5% today:


But nobody cares as Big Iron has barely budged:


Any time iron ore is in the $90s there is only downside. FMG’s potential head and shoulders top has firmed a little.

Big Gas is holding too despite the mushrooming political risk:


Big gold is under-performing:


Big Debt is falling as macroprudential arrives:


Big Spruik doesn’t care even though it will hammer volumes:


Pretty blunt inaction today on the bourse.


      • “We can talk more about some of these other things later but we track excess liquidity and
        its sort of a simple idea we define it as M1 minus inflation so it’s real M1 and then minus
        economic activity and so this excess liquidity generally when it’s very high these are the
        best times to invest historically.

        So, excess liquidity tends to be high when money growth is high, when inflation is falling or
        low and economic activity is fairly subdued or low and these periods of time tend to be
        essentially coming out of recessions”

        Link here, it’s from a podcast interview with Johnathon Tepper.

      • Yes excess liquidity is something I have recently learned about and using the M1 – inflation and then – economic activity seems to be the model. J Tepper spelled it out pretty well on Macro Voices recently and excess liquidity for China has declined sharply on this chart with a lag to markets of anywhere from 6-12 months: https://blog.variantperception.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Capture-1.png

        This is another thing that makes me think the next China/Mining/Asia/Australia downturn could be upon us or atleast near despite the Sydney/Melbourne home owners/investors being as confident as ever…