Australia’s housing bubble smashes all records

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By Leith van Onselen

The ABS yesterday released its property price data for the December quarter, which valued Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households at a record $6.11 trillion dollars.

As shown below, the total value of Australia’s dwelling stock was an all-time high 7.5 times incomes as at December 2016, up from 7.1 times incomes a year prior:

Aust value of housing stock to income

Similarly, the ratio of dwelling values against Australian GDP hit a record 3.6 times as at December 2016, up from 3.5 times GDP a year prior:

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Aust value of housing stock to GDP

When divided by Australia’s population, Australian housing was worth a record $252,000 per man, women and child:

Australian housing values per capita
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Australia’s house prices are also showing a record divergence from rents:

Aust house prices versus rents

In fact, since Australian house values bottomed in September 2012, prices have risen by 34% in real terms versus only a 1% increase in real rents.

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While the ABS doesn’t keep data on rental yields, CoreLogic does. And unsurprisingly, gross rental yields have plummeted over recent years to an all-time low 3.1%:

ScreenHunter_17720 Mar. 01 13.49

And this has taken the value of Australian houses to an insane 32-times rents nationally, led by Sydney and Melbourne, up from 29-times a year ago:

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Aust House prices vs rents

Meanwhile, the mortgage debt underpinning Australia’s housing values hit an all-time high 96% of GDP as at December 2016, up from 92% of GDP a year earlier:

Australian mortgage debt to GDP
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This is one helluva bubble!

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.