Australia’s housing bubble smashes all records

Advertisement

By Leith van Onselen

The ABS yesterday released its property price data for the December quarter, which valued Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households at a record $6.11 trillion dollars.

As shown below, the total value of Australia’s dwelling stock was an all-time high 7.5 times incomes as at December 2016, up from 7.1 times incomes a year prior:

Aust value of housing stock to income
Advertisement

Similarly, the ratio of dwelling values against Australian GDP hit a record 3.6 times as at December 2016, up from 3.5 times GDP a year prior:

Aust value of housing stock to GDP

When divided by Australia’s population, Australian housing was worth a record $252,000 per man, women and child:

Advertisement
Australian housing values per capita

Australia’s house prices are also showing a record divergence from rents:

Aust house prices versus rents
Advertisement

In fact, since Australian house values bottomed in September 2012, prices have risen by 34% in real terms versus only a 1% increase in real rents.

While the ABS doesn’t keep data on rental yields, CoreLogic does. And unsurprisingly, gross rental yields have plummeted over recent years to an all-time low 3.1%:

ScreenHunter_17720 Mar. 01 13.49
Advertisement

And this has taken the value of Australian houses to an insane 32-times rents nationally, led by Sydney and Melbourne, up from 29-times a year ago:

Aust House prices vs rents

Meanwhile, the mortgage debt underpinning Australia’s housing values hit an all-time high 96% of GDP as at December 2016, up from 92% of GDP a year earlier:

Advertisement
Australian mortgage debt to GDP

This is one helluva bubble!

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.