Another day, another apocalyptic Do-nothing poll

Advertisement

From Domainfax:

erg

Support for the Turnbull government has crashed, according to the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, and Labor now holds a thumping 10-point lead over the Coalition in the two-party preferred vote.

Under a uniform swing, if an election had been held on Saturday, the government would have suffered an electoral drubbing and lost 24 seats, including cabinet ministers Peter Dutton and Christian Porter, as well as junior ministers Ken Wyatt and Luke Hartsuyker.

The poll will likely send shockwaves through the government, which believed it had started to recover politically after a series of policy announcements designed to tackle rising power prices, and may kick off a fresh discussion about the Coalition’s prospects under the leadership of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

The Coalition now trails Labor on a two-party preferred basis by 55 per cent to 45 per cent, while strong support for minor parties, including the Greens, One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team, has held firm.

…Both major parties’ primary vote has fallen since the election, but the slump has been worse for the Turnbull government. In July 2016, the Coalition’s primary vote was 42 per cent; that fell to 36 per cent in November and has now slipped to just 33 per cent. Labor’s primary vote at the election was 35 per cent, and fell to 30 per cent in November. It has rebounded to 34 per cent.

Voters’ apparent dissatisfaction with the major parties has translated into strong support for the Greens, who recorded a primary vote of 16 per cent, up from 10 per cent at the election, and “other” parties, including Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team, which recorded a primary vote of 17 per cent, down one point since November but up four points since the last election.

I will say it again. The government’s only chance to dodge electoral wipe out is to outflank and destroy One Nation by cutting immigration. The longer it delays the worse it will get.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.